The Nailers have managed to lose their last four in a row to fall to sixth place in the division and out of a playoff spot currently. What must the team do as they approach the new year to push themselves back toward a playoff spot?
Watching this team lose four straight division games, all while scoring three goals or more in every game, was very tough. Having their defense and goaltending fail them when it was needed the most can be gut-wrenching. That’s the area you will see teams bound for the playoffs having their most confidence in game in and game out. Without that, your forwards have to play tighter for fear of giving up chances against, and it can limit your ability to score for your team, which severely limits the chances of your team winning.
That’s not to say that the forwards don’t need to help out in their own end. From what I saw, there was a lot of chasing pucks around their own zone way too often when the opponent came in and maintained possession, which isn’t helpful either. A team like Wheeling will be successful when the forwards can play with speed and get the other team back on their heels, but also when the defenders are able to withstand the periodic odd man breaks without giving up too many chances against. This team failed to do that all last week.
As they finish up their long streak of division games they had prior to Christmas (more on that in a minute), it becomes even more important to gain points against those teams, especially the ones ahead of them in the standings. Each game against those teams needs to be looked at as a potential four-point swing (two for you for winning, but also taking two away from them that they could have earned by winning). That’s why I focused so hard on this streak of division games, because this showed where the Nailers belong within this group of teams, and if this is any indication, things may get a little tough in the Friendly City for the local hockey team.
With only one game left in their divisional game streak that dates back to November 9th, the Nailers are currently 9-10 during that stretch of games. What has this shown you about this team and what fair expectations should be?
Any time you get a stretch like this against divisional opponents (who should all be looked at as potential playoff matchups), you need to bring the best game you have, night in and night out. If you look at the rest of the schedule, the only other long streak the team has against divisional foes is an eight-game stretch right at the end of the season, with four of those games coming against the Iowa Heartlanders, who currently sit in last place. This is why it was so important to be successful now. You position yourself in a strong spot within the division, prove to the rest of the teams that you won’t go down without a fight to keep it in their minds later in the year when they aren’t facing you quite as often, and use the weaker games in the second half to bolster your positioning.
But these Nailers haven’t been able to do that. Middling around .500 during a huge stretch of the schedule won’t be enough to secure a chance at a playoff spot, and especially losing four in a row in the way that they have. The game in Toledo on Friday now becomes a very big fork in the road moment for this team. Getting the win at least keeps them on pace with the Walleye in the standings, and just one standings point back of Kalamazoo for the fourth and final playoff spot in the division. Not to mention, it’s Toledo, and any time you can get a win against them, it just feels different. Accepting yet another loss and staying below .500 during this huge stretch may make it difficult to bounce back in the second half of the season enough to secure another playoff berth. Start it now and start it off right.
After the Friday night matchup with Toledo, the Nailers will have 46 games remaining on their schedule. What needs to happen over those games (Friday notwithstanding) for this team to give themselves the best shot possible at a second straight playoff appearance?
As I said earlier, the game on Friday in Toledo could go a long way toward answering this question for me. A win here leading into the Christmas break will push Wheeling right back into the competition for a playoff spot, while a regulation loss pushes them even further behind Toledo and will make it that much tougher to catch them. The Nailers must focus on giving everything they have in this game to make sure they’re right there as we get closer to the end of this calendar year.
I know I’ve mentioned this previously, but of those remaining 46 games, 17 of them come against two of the worst teams in the entire ECHL in the Norfolk Admirals (currently 4-21-1 on the season) and the Iowa Heartlanders (6-11-6 so far this year). They also will have two games on the road against the Kansas City Mavericks, who have a record that closely resembles the Nailers record at 10-10-3. That means that 38 out of a possible 92 standings points can be earned against teams that I would consider beatable for the Nailers.
On the flip side though, that means they have 27 games against tougher opponents, including 13 against the current top three teams in the division (Indy, Cincinnati, and Fort Wayne). Wheeling must find a way to be competitive in those games, while winning the games against teams who they are better than, to hopefully shoehorn their way back into playoff contention. Based on what I’ve seen so far this year, I would be surprised if anything less than 90 standings points is enough to get into a playoff spot. That means the Nailers will need to earn an additional 67 points the rest of the way to get to that point, and if they find a way to get all of the points from the easier opponents, they still need to find a way to earn 29 points in their other games. That is what will be needed from them to hopefully find themselves playing past the middle of April.
Looking over the current stats for the team with only one game left before the Christmas break, where do you feel this team needs to see some improvement over the coming weeks and months?
I’ve always been big on specific stats for specific positions, and some of the ones I like to look at give me considerable reasons for concern for this team. Taking into consideration that the Nailers have now played 25 games this season (which accounts for approximately 35% of their entire season), when looking at the forward group, I find it very disappointing that there isn’t a single player who has managed to hit double digits in goals this season or make it to 20 points, which would still be less than a point per game but would be a more respectable figure. Cedric Desruisseaux and Justin Addamo both currently sit with nine goals so far this year, with the former also accounting for 18 total points (Addamo trails that category with only 15 points this season in two less games played). While you always hope for consistency throughout your lineup, you have to be able to count on players at the top of the lineup to perform and get you those timely points. Seeing that no forwards on the team have been able to crack those milestones really makes me wonder about their ability to score important goals down the stretch.
On defense, obviously helping out in the point department is helpful (and having Josh Maniscalco currently leading the team with 22 points from the blue line is a little surprising), I’ve always used plus/minus as a benchmark for these guys. This shows whether your defenders are able to win the point battle while on the ice. As currently situated, the Nailers only have three out of their six defenders (who have played at least 15 games) with a positive plus/minus, and the leaders in that category (Adam Smith and David Drake) are only a +3. This is a very concerning stat to say the least, as it shows that the defenders on the ice aren’t able to assist their goalie in keeping pucks out of the own net at even strength in comparison to what the forward group is doing. Playing stronger defense and freeing up the forwards to be more aggressive might help this team in the long run, and that should be the focus of this group.
Moving to the last group on the ice, the goalies, I’ve always concerned myself the most with save percentage. Simply stated, this tells me the odds of the goalie in net making a save when a puck is thrown in his direction. An average goaltender should have a save percentage in the .900 range, with the better goalies being closer to .910 or .915. Both goaltenders the Nailers have right now fall well below that average mark, with Taylor Gauthier sitting at an .891 and Tommy Nappier being even further behind at .870. This tells me that they will need to lean even harder on the defenders to keep pucks away from them, as they aren’t able to make the saves when the puck does come through. Getting stronger play in the net and making more saves when called upon will go a long way in helping this team fight their way toward a playoff spot.
Now that you’ve had a chance to experience them a number of times this year, what are your thoughts on the in-house group (PA announcer and team emcee) and how have they improved as the season has gone along?
Any time you have to replace someone who did their job for you for 20+ years, such as the previous PA announcer for the Nailers did, there has to be a learning curve there. It can’t be easy to step into the role and try to make it your own while making sure the fans still get what they expect from you game in and game out. I will admit that it took me a few home games to get a better feel for how Chris Thoburn provided information as the game went along, but I must admit, I think he has done a fantastic job of engaging the fans and making sure his announcements are meeting expectations. I used to love to go to hockey games and keep track of the book (the goals, the penalties, etc.), and if I still did it the same way now as I did when I was a kid, I think it would still work out perfectly, and I give a lot of credit to him for that.
As for the emcee in the arena for the intermission activities as well as the different fun things the team does during breaks in the action, I know Corey Klug has been doing that for a few years now and his energy and enthusiasm really come through well. If I needed to be as high octane as he is for an entire game, I would tire out before we even reached the third period, but he just keeps chugging along, and he does such a great job of getting kids involved in every activity happening in that arena. He definitely complements the experience for a family coming into the arena looking forward to a hockey game, and I encourage everyone who can make it to come down and bring the kids so they can see what a fun time it really is in the arena.
