After seeing some success against Norfolk two weeks ago, winning two out of three, the Nailers were only able to win one of three last week against Kalamazoo and Reading. With only eight games remaining in the season, what do the Nailers need to do down the stretch to show they might be improving going into the offseason?
Well, that was fun while it lasted, seeing the Nailers get some wins on the board, even if it was against relatively inferior competition. Norfolk is a very bad team this year, the worst in the ECHL, so while it’s nice to win, it would’ve been even nicer to see wins come against some stronger competition, like Kalamazoo and Reading. Unfortunately, the boys in black and gold just weren’t up to the task, losing Friday to the K-Wings 2-1 before splitting the weekend against the Royals, winning 6-5 on Saturday before closing out the weekend with a 5-3 loss. Earlier in the year, the Nailers were at least splitting games pretty evenly and never going more than two games over or two games under .500 well into the new calendar year. But now mired in a 3-9 stretch since the beginning of March, it’s become apparent that they most likely won’t be able to finish above .500 for the year, which is very disappointing considering where they were at earlier this season.
The worst part about it is the fact that the Nailers have, for the most part, looked competitive in most of these losses. They’ve found ways to have ties or even leads into the second or third period of games, but haven’t been able to hold on. Part of that has to be the current makeup of the roster, and I’ll discuss what I think those issues are shortly. But you have to wonder if part of the problem is the fact that, with the changes that happened to the roster throughout the year didn’t lead to an adjustment in playing fashion. Coach Army did what he could with what he was given throughout the year, thanks to callups and injuries and everything. But the plan was for this team to play with speed, to create havoc for opponents by pressing, and using possession and shooting to help the team win games. But when you’re turning over as much of your roster as you did this year and bringing in players who may not be able to play in such a system successfully, sometimes adjustments need to be made. I didn’t see enough changes being made to play to the strengths of the players that they had on the ice that led me to believe they would see success regularly here towards the end.
That being said, I believe the Nailers can still have a successful last eight games of the year. Success at this point has to be defined as seeing what you have for next season. There are a number of younger players currently available to play, and I think giving them a chance and seeing what you have there is absolutely paramount at this point. If you want to try to win with the younger guys, figure out what type of system would work best with what you are putting on the ice and use their skills to your advantage. Obviously, younger guys usually have more speed, so you can go back to playing like that, but don’t forget to focus on playing strong team defense and working hard on the special teams to learn those systems too. Now is when you need to lay the groundwork to have a good 2023-24 season.
When looking at the standings, it’s pretty apparent the Nailers aren’t going to qualify for the playoffs this season. What areas do you think Wheeling needs to focus on improving in roster-wise to hopefully be more competitive next year?
The easiest place on the ice to look for improvement next season would be in the goal. As a team, the Nailers goalies are tied for 17th in the league in goals against per game, allowing 216 goals in 64 games for a 3.38 goals against average for the season. But in March alone, the Nailers have given up 47 goals in just 12 games, leading to a goals against average per game of 3.92. That simply isn’t good enough play by the guys wearing all of that padding to help the team see success. Wheeling will need someone between the pipes next year who will make smart decisions with the puck, especially when playing it, will work harder to cover the posts as the puck comes down on the sides, and control rebounds a lot better. A team can be good enough to score four goals a game (which Wheeling isn’t, but we’ll talk about that here soon), but if your goalie allows five, it won’t help. The big guys in the back have to play stronger all year to help this team next season.
While I did say that’s the easiest place to pick, my personal place that I would like them to find someone to help improve the roster is on the defense. I feel like getting a good puck carrier, someone who can create on the offensive zone, maintain possession, and quarterback the power play would be extremely beneficial. Losing Josh Maniscalco like they did really hurt the production from the blue line, but you have to find a way to make up for his production on the back end, and they simply couldn’t find anyone who could pick up the slack. Conversely, in order to have a defenseman who can drive play, you need a linemate for him who can play strong in the defensive zone. I feel like Wheeling might have a couple guys who play like that, such as David Drake and Jack Van Boekel, but just like with the offensive play, you need consistency there too, which is something they’ll need to work on.
I wouldn’t say the forward group for the Nailers is the strongest in the league, but it’s probably the strongest of the three facets on the team currently. If anything, Wheeling really needs to find someone who can finish plays, whether that’s playing hard in front of the net or getting strong shots on goal. The Nailers have managed to score 199 goals in their 64 games this season, good for a tie for 20th in the league with 3.11 goals for per game for the season, although that number has gone up to 3.25 during March (39 goals over the 12-game stretch). This goes back to the above number with the goaltenders, where you’re not scoring enough and giving up too many. Having a difference in goals per game of almost one whole goal will kill any momentum your team is trying to create. The Nailers will definitely need to find a way to create more scoring opportunities and hit the net a bit more often to see greater success come next season.
What have you seen out of the players currently on the roster at the end of the season that gives you hope for their play the rest of the way and into next year if they find their way back to Wheeling?
I will say, I’ve been on sports teams in my life that were eliminated from playoff contention that then took the foot off the gas, didn’t work as hard in practice, and would get down on themselves when falling behind in games, which ultimately led to players just coasting. One thing I’ve noticed with this team is they’re still bringing their compete level into the games and not allowing it to bring them down if they fall behind. For example, in Sunday’s game against Reading, Wheeling ended up going down 3-0 rather early in the game. It would’ve been very easy, in a lost season, to roll over and allow that to happen, and it could’ve ended up being an 8-0 game or worse. But the Nailers didn’t let that happen, scoring a goal with less than a minute left in the first period to go into the first intermission only down 3-1. That gave them the confidence that they could come out and outwork and outhustle the Royals, eventually finding a way to tie the game at 3-3 just 2:38 into the second period. Unfortunately, they still ended up losing that game, but having it be as competitive as it was after the start they had shows me they’re still working hard and trying to be competitive.
This gives me two important perceptions. First off, these guys know they’re playing for next season, and they look like they want to have a chance here with the Nailers. If someone isn’t interested in playing for a team, they won’t try as hard as these guys are to show what they can do, at least not like these guys are. It feels like they’re wanting to be in Wheeling, which flows into my second point, which is that these guys are still buying in on what Coach Army is telling them. Another thing that can happen when a season gets away from a team is they begin to tune out what their coach is telling them. It feels like Army has earned their respect and they believe in what they are being taught. There’s no reason to believe that there is any question regarding Coach Army’s future in Wheeling, but based on what I see coming down the stretch, I don’t see any reason to think he shouldn’t be the coach here for the foreseeable future if he’s able to inspire his players to continue to play hard at this point.
The Nailers are one of only six teams on the season to have over 1,000 penalty minutes as a team for the year. What impact, if any, do you think that has had on their season overall compared to some other teams who are much lower in the penalty minute count?
In hockey, generally, the greater the penalties your team takes in a season, the less success you should expect to see. Your team would need to have a fantastic penalty kill squad to be able to handle being shorthanded as often as you would be with that many penalties in a season. And for the most part, that holds true, with the teams with the lowest number of penalty minutes being in playoff spots. For example, the Idaho Steelheads, far and away the best team in the entire league this season at 52-9-1-2, have only 739 penalty minutes this season, good for the second lowest total in the entire ECHL. Staying out of the box, combined with a strong penalty kill when you do take one (Idaho has the fourth best penalty kill in the entire league at 83.7 percent success rate) will generally lead to a lot of success.
However, the thing that confused me with this was the fact that of the six teams with over 1,000 penalty minutes this season, four of them are currently in a playoff position, including the team currently in first place in the Central division, Cincinnati (currently with 1,099 PIM’s this year). Ft. Wayne, Wichita, and Utah are also over the thousand minute mark and currently occupy playoff spots, while Allen is the other team over that mark that are currently out, but sit only one point behind Utah for the fourth and final spot in the Mountain division. That means that five of the teams with that many minutes have a chance to earn a spot in the playoffs, with the Nailers being the odd man out, which is definitely strange.
The big thing is the success rate of their penalty kill units, with three of those teams (Cincinnati, Ft. Wayne, and Wichita) currently sitting in the top ten of the entire league in that stat, and only one team (Utah) coming in below the Nailers current rate of 79.1% success. This tells me those teams can deal being put a man down, can find a way to still drive play, and get good goaltending to keep the puck out of their net. If Wheeling could find a way to be as successful as some of those other teams, there’s no reason to think they can’t find more success next year, should they take as many penalties next season as they have this year so far.
The end of the season, especially one in which you won’t make the playoffs, is the best time for retrospection for a team. What do you think is the greatest contributing factor to the Nailers falling off from where they were last year and missing out on a playoff spot this year?
I know I’ve mentioned this in previous columns, but being part of a developmental league, where you anticipate players moving as the season goes along, can definitely take a toll on your team’s roster. At the beginning of the year, the Nailers were anticipating having a forward core that featured players like Cam Hausinger and Justin Addamo, a defensive group led by Josh Maniscalco, and strong goaltending from Taylor Gauthier. At this point, none of those players are with the Nailers, and most likely won’t see any more time in Wheeling over the last few weeks. It’s a good sign when your players get called up, as it tells you that you’re preparing them for higher leagues and that those teams value what you’re turning those players into. But it’s a double edged sword when you want to have a successful season of your own, causing you to lose your best players to other teams while replacing them with guys who most likely won’t be able to achieve similar outcomes.
While this is definitely a major factor to how the season turned out for this season’s iteration of the Nailers, I would say another contributing issue is the lack of success of both specialty team groups. Generally speaking, a team that has success throughout the year and puts themselves in good position coming down the stretch will be strong on at least one side of the advantage groups, whether power play or penalty kill. The Nailers didn’t do nearly enough in either facet to be in such a place. The penalty kill is pedestrian overall, sitting in 16th place (out of 28 teams) with 49 power play goals against in 234 opportunities, for a successful kill rate of 79.1%. For as average as their penalty kill has been, the power play has been absolutely abysmal, tied for dead last in the entire league with 36 power play goals scored for in 243 opportunities and a 14.8% success rate. I remember back at the beginning of the year, I said these two groups would be the deciding factor for how successful the team would be, and unfortunately it turned out that way, and with how bad both groups have been, the Nailers are right where I would expect them to be. Hopefully they can find a way to improve on both of those groups for next season and turn themselves back into a playoff contender a year from now.
