The Nailers struggled last weekend, earning only one out of a possible four points with games at Toledo and Cincinnati. What went wrong for Wheeling in those games?
Coming down the stretch of a hotly contested playoff race, every point matters. I understand the first game was against Toledo, who yet again are division winners and are poised to make a deep run in the postseason, so that was set to be a difficult matchup. But when you have an opportunity to play a team who’s already all but out of the running and is only playing for pride and you fail to earn a couple of crucial points, it’s quite disappointing.
Friday’s game was actually a really good showing by the visiting team, as Wheeling managed to keep Toledo off the scoreboard early while tallying one of their own almost halfway through the first when Jordan Martel found the back of the net. The only goal scored in the period came on the power play, and area the Nailers have struggled at a bit this season, and their penalty kill managed to kill one off too.
In the second, Wheeling was able to earn another power play, but this time it was the Walleye who took advantage and netted a short-handed goal to tie the game back up. Despite the Nailers leading in shots in the frame 11-6 and getting another man advantage with just over two and a half minutes left in the period, they couldn’t solve the Toledo goaltender, and the game went to the third tied, a situation that has not gone Wheeling’s way much this season, with a record of 6-8-1 in such games coming into the weekend.
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The Nailers got another power play opportunity early in the third period and once again cashed in, as Jared Westcott (a new signee coming in from Lake Superior State University) earned his first professional goal on a nice tip in. That score managed to stand for almost five minutes before Toledo scored the tying goal and put all the pressure back on the visitors. Despite the game becoming a bit of a back-and-forth affair, the Walleye were able to score the third and deciding goal with just over five minutes to play, and despite pulling their goalie, Wheeling just couldn’t even the score and lost in regulation, earning zero points for the game.
The Nailers came out the next night in Cincinnati looking to put their disappointing performance the evening before behind them and tried to at least salvage two points on the weekend. Despite both teams getting scoring chances in the first period, neither team was able to find the back of the net in the frame. Only one power play was given in the period to Wheeling, and they couldn’t take advantage of it (the man-advantage group went 0-for-3 on the evening in total).
The second period started a lot different to the first, as the Cyclones managed to get on the board twice within the first three minutes of the period to put the Nailers down 2-0 and forcing them to chase the game a bit. Luckily, just before the midpoint of the second another newcomer, Ryan Miotto (who joins the team after four years at Canisius followed by one season at Vermont) got his first tally as a pro to cut the Cincy lead in half, which turned out to be the score going into the final period of the weekend.
In the third, Wheeling really picked up their game and tried to earn the tying mark, which eventually did come with over nine minutes left in regulation thanks to a rebound picked up by Justin McRae and stuffed into the net. From there, it turned into a bit of a mad dash to the final horn, with both teams trying to finish the game but neither succeeded and the game entered overtime. Each team was able to pick up one shot on goal in the extra frame, but unfortunately, the Cincinnati shot found the back of the net and sent the Nailers home with just one point on the weekend, which simply isn’t enough to help them in the playoff chase.
The Nailers then dropped another overtime game on Wednesday, their final road game of the season, in Indy. What could they have done better to earn the two points?
Well, the house of horrors known as Indiana Farmers Coliseum continues to be just that for the Nailers, winning just once in six games there this season. Wheeling is now 2-6-2 against the Fuel this season overall, with one more chance to try to get one more win against them coming up this weekend (but more on that shortly). Earning at least a point in this game helps, but in the grand scheme of things, it’s just not enough when you’re in a dogfight to make the postseason.
The game started very quickly, with a lot of back-and-forth action and some really good saves before Indy finally opened the scoring just under seven minutes into the game. Wheeling was able to answer with one of the own just two and a half minutes later, as Davis Bunz got his tenth goal of the season, and things stayed deadlocked for a while. It appeared the game would remain tied into the intermission potted one behind Sparks with about two and a half minutes left, but the Nailers once again answered, this time off the stick of the returning Dillon Hamaliuk, and the game did indeed to go the intermission tied.
The second period opened with a very quick penalty just under 30 seconds in on Indy, and Wheeling’s power play capitalized thanks to yet another newcomer, this time getting the first professional goal for Dustin Manz (who joins the Nailers after two years at American International College, which came after three years at Lake Superior State). Seeing these new guys work as hard as they are and be rewarded three games in a row gives a lot of hope for what they’ll do in their careers, which will hopefully continue in Wheeling beyond these last few games this year. The Wheeling lead lasted until halfway through the period, when the Fuel earned a power play tally of their own to tie the game at 3-3, which stuck as the score until the horn sounded, giving both teams the chance to rest before commencing one of the most frantic periods of hockey I can remember in quite a while.
The third period started quick, with Tanner Laderoute scoring just over two minutes in and putting Wheeling ahead once again, but just under two minutes later, Indy managed to tie the game yet again. Things managed to quiet down for a while, but not for a lack of trying, as both goaltenders had to make some strong saves to keep things where they were. Then, with a little more than nine minutes left in regulation and just as their only power play of the period expired, Hamaliuk threw a beautiful pass across to Manz who scored his second of the night and gave the Nailers another lead at 5-4.
Wheeling appeared ready to bring the two points home with less than a minute left in the game when Justin Addamo got called for slashing and, with their goalie pulled, Indy used their 6-on-4 advantage to net a goal just ten seconds after the penalty call, with only 21 seconds left on the clock, and you could just feel the air get sucked out of the Nailers. Despite the game going to overtime, Wheeling couldn’t even manage to get a shot on goal in almost four minutes of extra action, and the third shot off an Indy stick ended up in the net and the Fuel took home the extra point.
The Nailers were scheduled to have two home games this weekend, but the Fort Wayne contest has been postponed due to flooding. Now they only have Indy coming to town on Sunday. What does Wheeling have to do to get revenge for Wednesday?
Even though I am sad it takes away the chance to see some hockey over the weekend, the safety of everyone involved in the flooding areas of the city is paramount, and I hope everyone reading this has been able to stay safe. Remember, things can be replaced, but people cannot, so be thankful if you and your loved ones were able to remain safe. Luckily, they were able to push the game that was originally scheduled for Friday to Wednesday to make it up, so we’ll still get to see the game be played and the Nailers can try for some absolutely crucial points against the team directly behind them in the standings.
We do still get some hockey this weekend, as Wheeling gets the chance to take to the ice against the Fuel for the final time this season coming off the heartbreaking loss last weekend. Indy comes to the Friendly City after playing a game against the Komets in Fort Wayne the night before, so while we have to hope Indy can find a way to win that game and allow Wheeling to keep a little cushion before Fort Wayne comes to town, we can also hope that game is a bit more physical and beats them down a little bit before the Fuel come our way.
From what we saw last weekend, we know the Fuel want to play a bit more wide open of a game, as Indy comes into the game averaging 3.22 goals for per game, while allowing 3.07 goals per game. Another thing to be prepared for is how physical the Fuel will want to be, as they have the second most penalty minutes in the Western Conference (fourth most in the entire league), and their penalty kill group is 20th in the league on the road, so if Wheeling is able to take advantage of their power plays in this game, they can find a way to come away with two necessary points.
As the season winds down, the Nailers find themselves barely in a playoff spot, just three points ahead of Fort Wayne, with the Komets having two games in hand. How can Wheeling assure themselves of a spot in the postseason now?
After the Nailers went on their big 12-game winning streak back in January into February, I thought it wouldn’t take much the rest of the way for them to stay in a playoff spot with only two months left in the season. However, since the streak ended, Wheeling has earned a record of 7-12-3 for only 17 points, which isn’t enough to stay very high in such a competitive division. Over the same time period (since February 16), the other teams in the division that are still in the playoff race have earned 25 points in Indy, 26 points for Kalamazoo, and 20 points for Fort Wayne. I didn’t include Toledo because they’re far enough beyond the race that it isn’t worth counting, and Cincinnati and Iowa are far enough behind that they were never in the race to begin with.
When you run into a situation where the other teams around you are earning that many more points than you, a lead can evaporate on you, just like it has for the Nailers. One of the games in hand that the Komets have will be played on Saturday, so a loss by Fort Wayne against Indy would go a long way towards helping Wheeling. The real issue is, the Nailers don’t really control their own destiny at this point. The Komets’ schedule coming down the stretch is Indy, at Kalamazoo, at Wheeling, Indy, then a home and home with Toledo, so if Fort Wayne finds a way to win all of them but the games against the Walleye, they earn an extra eight points, giving them 82 for the season. If Wheeling wins all but the Fort Wayne game, they can only come up with 81 points, and are stuck watching the playoffs from home. I’m not saying the game next Wednesday is more important than the other three Wheeling has left, but without a win in that game, it will be very difficult for the Nailers to get in. But it all starts with a win on Sunday against the Indy Fuel.
Looking back over the season that has happened so far, what are your takeaways from this year and what do you think caused the Nailers to be in the position they are in, fighting for their playoff lives?
Boy, there sure are a lot of things that happened this season with the Nailers, both good and bad, that have led them to where they are now. The most obvious thing is the winning streak we talked about earlier. Turning even a few of those wins into losses (even overtime losses) would put Wheeling down in the fifth spot in the division right now and would force them to work hard to jump someone and get in, rather than hoping to hold the spot they currently occupy.
Something else that has stuck out to me almost all year is just how important it has been to the Nailers to score first. With four games left, Wheeling has managed to score first in 37 of their 68 games played (54.4% of the time), and their record in those games is 25-10-1-1 for a point percentage of 0.703. Even though it’s actually behind the league average (which is a 0.734 points percentage for the team that scores first), that’s still an impressive figure, and it shows just how much playing with a lead means for these teams.
On the other hand, an area the Nailers could really benefit from working on next season is on the specialty teams. Their power play has improved slightly throughout the season, but they still sit 18th leaguewide with a 19.1% success rate. Before the season began, I said it had to be over 20% for Wheeling to be successful for the season, and despite them being close, it just isn’t close enough. As for the penalty kill, that group absolutely struggled overall this year, currently in 24th place in the ECHL with a 77.0% success rate. I said they needed to hang around the 80% success rate for the season, and when looking at the rankings, that seems to be the cutoff between the really good teams and the mediocre to bad teams. If they can find a way to turn that around over these last few games and get it prepared for next year, I think the Nailers can turn things around and definitely be a playoff team.
