The Nailers earned three points in their three games last weekend, splitting with Adirondack before losing in a shootout to Maine. What happened in those games to keep Wheeling from maximizing their point earning?
Well, the somewhat good news about this is that Trois-Rivières found a way to lose two out of three to Norfolk last weekend, with both losses being in regulation, so they only gained two points on the weekend. Unfortunately, that means the Admirals earned four points in those games, which made the race for second that much tighter. The Nailers still have quite a lot of work to do to stay where they are with only 19 games remaining in the regular season.
Friday’s game got off to a quick start, with Matthew Quercia engaging an Adirondack player in a fight just five seconds into the contest. Both teams pushed hard in the first, combining for 24 shots on goal (13-11 in favor of Wheeling), but neither team had a lead after 20 minutes of play. The Nailers finally got on the board just under five minutes into the second, with Cole Cameron firing one into the net to break the deadlock, but neither team was able to come up with another tally and the 1-0 score held into the third.
Chrystopher Collin extended the Wheeling lead just past the halfway mark of the third, but Adirondack managed to score with less than a minute to play and their goalie on the bench to bring the deficit back to one. They pulled the goalie again, but Wheeling scored this time with less than a second to play thanks to Kyle Jackson, and the home fans went home happy.
Saturday’s game made up for the lack of offensive action in the first period the night before, as the two teams combined for seven goals in the period. Unfortunately, only two of them came from Wheeling sticks, as Matthew Quercia got a power play tally after Adirondack had already scored twice, followed by Kyle Jackson getting his second of the weekend after another Thunder tally. Adirondack would go on to score twice more before the end of the period, and the Nailers found themselves with a huge hill to climb.
Wheeling would manage to claw one back early in the second, with Chrystopher Collin getting one into the net, but the Thunder found a way to answer, and the Nailers remained down by three with only the third period left. The Nailers would get back within two thanks to Eli Lieffers, but Adirondack would get an empty net goal late in the period, and the Thunder left town with the split.
Sunday’s game with Maine turned out to need a bit of time to get rolling, as neither team showed much early.
Once it opened up, both teams were able to get some scoring chances, but nothing went in, and the first period ended in a 0-0 tie. The Mariners fixed that with just over seven minutes left in the second period, and despite their best efforts, Wheeling was unable to even the score before the horn sounded to end the frame. The Nailers did finally get on the board just over three minutes into the third off of a good shot by Louis Roehl, but despite their best efforts, including a 13-3 shot advantage in the final period of regulation, Wheeling couldn’t get another one in and the game went to overtime.
In the extra frame, Logan Pietila was given a penalty, but Maine couldn’t take advantage, and it eventually went to a shootout where two Mariners were able to score, but neither Wheeling shooter could get one in, and the visitors left with the extra point.
The Nailers now go on the road for three this weekend against Adirondack. What does Wheeling need to do to earn enough points to keep pace in the division race?
The Nailers head north to face the Thunder after splitting with them here at home. Adirondack will be coming off a midweek sojourn down to Reading for a Wednesday matchup with the Royals. The Thunder still find themselves in last place in the North Division currently, sitting five points behind Maine to keep them in the basement.
While they currently have a record of 18-32-3-1 (pending that Wednesday game), Adirondack has only earned seven wins on home ice this year, with a record of 7-17-1 there.
The Thunder find themselves just outside the top five in penalty minutes per game, sitting in sixth with an average of 15.02 minutes per game. Wheeling continues to climb on that list, now up to 11.28 minutes per game themselves. The big difference is how the specialty teams have performed for each squad. While the Nailers still find themselves top five in the league for both penalty kill and power play overall (sitting in fourth in each category), Adirondack has the third-worst power play group (14.5% success) and is next to last in penalty kill (73.1% success).
At home this season, their power play is slightly better at a 16.3% success rate, but their penalty kill is dead last in the league with a 64.6% success rate.
Another item of note is that the Thunder have been outscored in every regulation period overall so far this year. Their goal differential is -33 in the first period, -12 in the second, and -4 in the third. That tells me that, in order to be successful against this team, the Nailers will need to come out swinging and try to get an early lead.
Adirondack has a record of 4-22-0 when trailing after the first period and 1-29-0 when losing after two, so if Wheeling can get a lead early and hold it, they should see some success against this team.
Looking around the division with just about a month left to go, how close are the Nailers to clinching their spot in the postseason, and where could they end up slotting in for it?
I will say, the main reason I haven’t really been panicking that much about how things have gone recently for the Nailers is because, with how well they set themselves up in the first half of the year, it would take quite an effort to keep them out of the postseason at this point. While it would be nice to get back to our winning ways to have our feet under us before the really important games start, I think there’s a very good chance we will be seeing postseason hockey in the Friendly City again this year.
As of right now, the first team out of the playoffs is Reading, who currently have 55 points (Wheeling is sitting in second with 67 points, 12 ahead of the Royals) with 18 games remaining on the schedule.
That means the absolute best they could finish at is 91 points if they somehow find a way to sweep through their remaining schedule, including three in Wheeling against the Nailers right at the beginning of April.
That would mean the Nailers need to get 92 points in their other 16 games they have left this year (after subtracting out those Reading games). In order to get the 25 points needed out of 32 points available, they would need a 0.781 points percentage in those other games.
No teams in the league have a percentage that high for the season right now, but hey, if Reading can have a 1.000 in this imaginary world, why can’t Wheeling get to their mark too?
And that’s not even considering the schedule the Royals have the rest of the way. They still have two games left against Trois-Rivières, five left with Norfolk, and finish the season with two against Worcester. And of the teams ahead of Reading in the standings, the only team with a losing record against them is the Railers, at 2-4-0-1.
I have a very good feeling that, within a couple weeks, we should find out if Wheeling is going to the postseason, but the best way to ensure that happens is to find ways to win and leave no doubt about it.
The game of musical chairs that is the Nailers roster continued this week as Sergei Murashov got called up to Wilkes-Barre/Scranton once again. What effect do moves like these have on Wheeling and how far they might go in the postseason?
As I’ve said before, this is both one of the best and worst parts about being a fan of a farm team. You see a young man come into town and perform very well, and they become one of your favorite guys on the team (Murashov, Chris Ortiz, etc.). Next thing you know, an opportunity presents itself at the next level, and they’re either brought up by that team or offered a chance that’s too good to pass up on, and they’re gone.
It’s nice because it gives you a bit of a rooting interest in that team, and a reason to keep track of how they’re doing there. In the case of Murashov, he’s up at the next level in the same organization, an organization that I happen to root for all the way through, so it works for me.
But at the same time, having that skill here in Wheeling to help down the stretch and possibly into the postseason would be quite helpful. You do have to appreciate that they performed so well here that the teams at the next level thought they were worth it though.
As for Murashov, he’s acquitted himself quite nicely at both levels this season. His numbers in Wheeling (17-7-1, 2.40 goals-against average, 0.922 save percentage, one shutout) are impressive enough. His shutout streak of 132:33 that was broken last weekend by Adirondack is remarkable. But his numbers in the AHL are just as outrageous for a 20-year-old young man. He’s 6-0-0 with a 1.99 goals-against average and 0.934 save percentage and one shutout for Wilkes-Barre/Scranton this year. If anyone deserves the chance to show what they can do at that level for an extended period of time, it’s him.
We’ll just miss him here in Wheeling while he’s showing off up there.
Next Wednesday is the Nailers’ second education day game of the season, starting at 10:45 am against Trois-Rivières. How important is this game to the team, considering the opponent as well as how the crowd could play into it?
Education Day games are always a bit of a crapshoot. Having that many noisy, screaming children in the arena can be distracting to both teams. Add to it that the game starts so early compared to normal game days, as well as being the last home game on the schedule against the team you’re chasing for the division lead, and it can result in a lot of mayhem.
The ultimate hope here, obviously, is to have the kids come in, develop a rooting interest, and learn to understand the game well enough to know when the noise will help the Nailers and/or hinder the Lions. Knowing the kids, they’ll just be happy to have a day away from school, and the fact that it’s at a hockey game makes it all the better because they’re expected to be emotive there.
I know that, for me personally, I’ll have the radio on in my office so I can listen to my good friends DJ Abisalih and Isaac Basinger call the action. I hope that, if you enjoy hearing the arena at possibly the loudest level you’ll hear it all year, you give it a listen as well.
