The Nailers swept their final full weekend homestand last weekend, taking all three games from Worcester. What did Wheeling do well in these games to come away with all six points?
The Nailers have been pushing all the right buttons lately to get ready for what we all hope will be an extended stay in the postseason, starting in just a couple weeks. With Worcester most likely missing the playoffs this year (they come into this weekend 15 points outside the last spot with just nine games remaining in their schedule), this was a great opportunity to continue to grow the lead over Maine for the top spot in the North, and Wheeling did just that with these games.
Friday’s game saw Worcester come out pushing hard, getting 11 shots on net in the opening frame alone. Things remained scoreless until, with just over two minutes remaining in the period, Tristan Thompson gave the home team the lead while playing at 4-on-4, and that score held until the end of the period.
That lead was doubled less than a minute into the second thanks to Connor Lockhart, who ended up with four points in the game total. Taylor Gauthier did everything he could to make that lead stand, making a number of outstanding saves on Worcester’s 12 shots in the middle period, and the game remained 2-0 into the third. The Nailers had some power play time carry over into the third, and Matthew Quercia made them pay just nine seconds into the final period on the man advantage. The Railers pulled their goalie early in the third with the hope it would help them finally score with the extra skater, but Ryan McAllister scored into the empty net, and Wheeling came away with the 4-0 shutout victory, which was Gauthier’s 10th career shutout with the Nailers, a team record.
Gauthier was given his second straight start on Saturday thanks to his amazing play lately, and he had to earn everything he did on this night. He faced a total of 50 (!!) shots on net, turning away a total of 49 of them in another win. Worcester managed to get on the board first, just over seven minutes into the contest, but Wheeling responded with a Connor Lockhart goal with just over two minutes remaining in the period, followed by a Matty De St. Phalle tally with 40 ticks remaining on the clock to give the Nailers the lead heading into the first intermission.
Worcester followed up their 13 shots in the first period with another 20 attempts on net in the second, followed by another 17 in the third (while outshooting the Nailers 17-3 in that period), but Gauthier continued to play his game and stopped every attempt against him. Worcester once again pulled their goalie late in the hopes it would help them, but it came to pass that nothing was changing on that scoreboard, and Wheeling managed to clinch their spot in the playoffs thanks to this victory.
Sunday’s game turned into a war of attrition, as the two teams combined for 82 minutes in penalties in a 60 minute game, with two fights in the game and two players from each team being given a 10-minute misconduct for continuing altercations. The Nailers did manage to find the back of the net twice in the opening period, first by Matthew Quercia less than seven minutes into the contest followed by Brayden Edwards with just over a minute left in the frame. Maxim Pavlenko was given the start, but after making five saves in the opening period, an injury forced Taylor Gauthier back into action to end the weekend.
The second period is where everything broke out, with nine penalties being called in the period between the two teams. Wheeling managed to find the back of the net once again, with Quercia getting his second of the game with just over two minutes remaining, and the Nailers took a 3-0 lead into the third. The Railers finally broke through just past the halfway mark of the frame, but another empty net goal for Wheeling, this time by Brent Johnson, helped to clinch the 4-1 victory and the sweep, as well as a record of 11-1-1 for the month of March.
The Nailers then extended their winning streak to nine games on Wednesday, bringing home an 8-5 victory at Fort Wayne. How did Wheeling keep the streak alive?
Getting three much needed wins against a non-playoff team is nice to help you bank points. But getting the victory on the road against a team who has already locked down a playoff spot themselves feels even better. Here’s to hoping this is a sign of how things will go down the stretch, as six of Wheeling’s last seven games are against teams currently in a playoff spot, with the only opponent not currently in (Cincinnati) being tied in points for the fourth spot in the Central, but trailing Kalamazoo due to the Wings having a game in hand.
The game started fast, as the Nailers managed to get on the board less than two minutes into the contest thanks to Brayden Edwards. Logan Pietila managed to double the lead for Wheeling just before the halfway mark of the first, but the Komets managed to score one of their own later in the period to only be down 2-1 after the first 20 minutes of action.
The second period saw both teams combining for five goals in the frame. Luckily, four of those tallies were for the Nailers, coming from Matthew Quercia on the power play, Ryan McAllister, Edwards again for the second time in the game, and finally Blake Bennett on yet another power play opportunity. A power play tally by Fort Wayne kept the game from getting completely out of hand, but at 6-2 Wheeling, the writing was on the wall.
Unfortunately for the Nailers, the Komets weren’t to be denied in the third, scoring three straight early in the period, two of which came while shorthanded, to knock the Wheeling lead down to one. From there, the Nailers got back to scoring, first by Tanner Andrew with just under nine minutes to play, then by Connor Lockhart on an empty net with less than a minute to go, and the visitors left town with two huge points.
The Nailers have just one game over the weekend, going to Toledo to take on the Walleye on Saturday. What does Wheeling need to do to get their streak up to double digits?
Stop me if you’ve heard this one before: two first place teams walk into a barn… But seriously, this game between two of the best teams in the league (Wheeling enters play in third place in the league, while Toledo sits in fourth) has the chance to be one of the best contests coming down the stretch. And they will meet again less than two weeks later, on April 17th out in Toledo again.
For Wheeling to see success in this game, their shorthanded unit might have to perform well. The Nailers have the sixth highest penalty minutes per game average in the ECHL, averaging 14.11 minutes per game. Meanwhile, Toledo sits in dead last in the league, with only 8.49 minutes per game on average. The problem is, the Walleye power play unit has been absolutely deadly this season, sitting in first overall in the league at a 29.2% success rate, while they have done even better at home, coming into the weekend with a 29.9% success rate at Huntington Center. The Nailer penalty kill unit has been good on the road, sitting in ninth place with an 83.3% kill rate, although that’s below their overall rate, which sits at 84.1%, good for seventh in the ECHL.
When digging even deeper into the numbers, it’s amazing just how similar these teams are. Both teams have a +12-goal differential in the first period this year, a +17-goal differential in the second period, and are only separated by one goal for their differential in the third (+26 for Toledo, +25 for Wheeling). The Walleye have scored the fifth most goals in the league this year so far, while the Nailers have the ninth most, so there’s a chance this could be high scoring affair. Wheeling may need to come out quickly and get on top early to hopefully hold on tight and keep their lead through to the end, but I believe they have the skill to be able to do so.
The Nailers will play another midweek game next week as they welcome Cincinnati to town on Tuesday. What will it take for Wheeling to win this contest?
With the Cyclones having only eight games remaining in their regular season (as of this writing) and currently on the outside looking in, I fully expect them to come out flying to hopefully earn some much-needed points. Fortunately for Cincy, they end their season with their last three games of the year against the same Kalamazoo team they’re fighting to get past, so if they can keep it close heading into those contests, they should have a chance to earn their way into the postseason still.
Things have been up and down for the Cyclones this year, although they’ve been surprisingly better on the road this year (18-12-1-0) than at home (14-16-3-0). The big problem for Cincy this year has been in games where they fail to score first. Despite sitting outside of a playoff spot, they still find a way to score first in 54.7% of their games (35 out of 64), earning a record in those games of 23-10-2. However, in the 29 games they failed to get the first tally, they have earned a record of 9-18-2.
By comparison, the Nailers have been able to score first in exactly 60.0% of their games (39 out of 65), earning a record of 33-5-1 in those contests. In the 26 games where they failed to score first, Wheeling has still managed to earn a record of 10-11-2-3, which, while still below .500, still makes up 25 of their 92 standings points this season. That difference could be what ends up keeping the Cyclones out of the postseason. As for this game in particular, based on those stats, if the Nailers can manage to score first, there’s every reason to believe they can come away victorious.
The Nailers punched their ticket for the Kelly Cup playoffs thanks to the outcomes last weekend. What are they working for in their final seven games?
Two and eleven. Those are the numbers to keep in mind coming down the stretch. Those are the magic numbers for the Nailers to start the playoffs at home and to win their division for the first time in 22 years. Any combination of points earned by Wheeling and lost by the teams behind them (Maine for the division or Adirondack for home ice) will help them reach those milestones.
The Nailers have had an amazingly successful year no matter how you look at it. Coming into it with a brand new coach (Coach Ryan Papaioannou) who has never coached on this level before, a rather high amount of roster turnover year over year, and continued roster movement between this level and the AHL, there was a chance that Wheeling might struggle this season with all of the adjustments they needed to make. Instead, they came out hot early, had a couple down moments during the heart of winter, but rebounded nicely with their 11-1-1 record in March to set themselves up well to hopefully stay on top of the North heading into the postseason. I look forward to continuing to cover this team as it gets closer and closer to the postseason, and I can’t wait to see more playoff hockey at WesBanco Arena for the third year in a row.
