The Nailers were only able to play two games last weekend, splitting their series with Reading with a 3-1 victory Friday followed by a 5-2 loss on Saturday. What happened in these games that kept Wheeling from maximizing their point earnings?
It’s getting to be that time of year, as we approach the end of January. Teams on the outside looking in (or barely holding onto a spot in) the playoffs are going to start to worry now that everyone is past the halfway mark. They must find ways to maximize their points to get over the line. Teams like the Nailers, who are most likely firmly entrenched to at least stay in the top four of their division, have to be careful when playing those teams, as they will be bringing everything they have in every game.
Things started quickly on Friday, with both teams peppering the goalies for a total of 22 shots combined in the first, but none made it through to keep the score at 0-0 through the first. The Royals managed to break that tie less than three minutes into the second, with Wheeling on the power play. However, late in the period, Reading took another penalty and this time the Nailers took advantage with a power play goal by Connor Lockhart with just 23 seconds remaining to tie things back up heading into the third.
Wheeling was the one to come out of the gate hot in the final period, with Matty De St. Phalle getting the tiebreaking goal just over a minute into the frame. The Royals pushed hard to tie the game again, taking 19 shots in the period, but Taylor Gauthier stood tall and denied them all. Logan Pietila got the insurance empty netter right at the end, and the Nailers came away with the victory.
Reading came out on Saturday looking to even the score with Wheeling, taking an early lead just two minutes into the game. The Nailers fought back to tie the game thanks to Brayden Edwards, but the Royals took the lead back less than a minute later and held it through the end of the period.
Wheeling got a power play just short of six minutes into the second, and it only took them six seconds to make Reading pay via a Matthew Quercia goal to tie the game again. However, from there the Royals took over, pocketing another goal with just over two minutes left to take the lead into the third. Two more Reading goals, one on the power play and another one late on an empty net, sealed the deal and gave them a split of the short series.
The Nailers traveled up to Maine for a game on Wednesday, losing 3-2 in a shootout to the Mariners. What went wrong for Wheeling in that game?
While you never want to see the team directly behind you in the standings coming away with two points against you, finding a way to come back in the game to at least get one and keep them from jumping up too far on you helps a little bit. Looking ahead at the schedule, there aren’t any more games scheduled between these two teams, so hopefully, if they meet in the playoffs, the sour taste of losing this game sticks with these Nailers and they take care of business at that point.
This game started a little slowly, but eventually both teams got into it and started forcing the action on offense. The Nailers and Mariners combined for 19 shots through the first 20 minutes, but neither team was able to break through to open the scoring. The game continued that way until just past the halfway mark of the second period, when Maine got one past Taylor Gauthier to break the ice and get a lead. Neither team did much from there, and the Mariners held the lead into the third period.
The Nailers finally broke through early in the third, with Connor Lockhart getting the tying tally just 13 seconds into the frame. Unfortunately, a slashing penalty on Eric Parker gave Maine the man advantage, and they took that advantage as they scored a power play goal to go up again. Wheeling pulled their goalie late in the game, and with less than 30 seconds remaining, Logan Pietila scored to tie the game again and force overtime.
Connor Lockhart got called for a holding penalty just 33 seconds into the extra period, giving Maine their fifth power play of the night, but Gauthier stood tall to keep it tied, and the game eventually went into a shootout. Neither team was able to get a goal through the first four rounds, but in round five, Craig Armstrong from the Nailers failed to convert but Sebastian Vidmar of the Mariners got one past Gauthier to earn the extra point for Maine.
The Nailers now will play three games in three days this weekend in Worcester against the Railers. What does Wheeling need to do to get back on the winning track?
This weekend’s series has to be where the rubber starts to meet the road for the Nailers. Worcester currently occupies the fifth spot in the North Division, five points behind Reading for the final playoff spot. They realize as the calendar flips from January to February that they are running out of chances to earn some points and try to narrow that gap, especially with the Royals playing two games this weekend against Greensboro against the worst team in the conference, possibly even the league.
These games are true four-point contests for Wheeling, as regulation wins help to widen their gap and get them closer to clinching at least a playoff spot. As it stands, there is a 15-point spread between these teams, but that could be as low as nine points between the Nailers and missing the playoffs if the Railers were to sweep. With only two full months left in the 2025-26 regular season, things should and will get more tense getting into February.
As for Worcester, a couple things stand out to me about them. First off, they have the seventh highest average number of penalty minutes per game this season at 13.68 (Wheeling is in eleventh at 13.05, while league average is 12.26 PIMs per game). That would be ok, but their penalty kill, especially at home, is rather bad, sitting in 26th place in the 30-team league, killing only 75.4% of power plays against at home this year (overall is not much better, with a kill rate of 76.6%, good for 27th in the league). The Nailers’ power play unit needs to step it up in this series to help keep the Railers trailing.
The only issue there is, they are used to playing from behind. In their 38 games so far this season, they have only managed to score first in 11 of them, earning a record of 9-2-0 in those contests. That means, in their other 27 games where their opponent earned the first points of the game, they are 9-15-2-1, which isn’t that good, but is still impressive considering they’re spotting their opponents a lead. The Nailers have to be able to put them away if they get an early lead. Continue to pad that lead, get a cushion, then hold on tight to the end. I don’t see why they can’t come away with at least four, but hopefully six points out of this series.
The Nailers have another midweek game next week, Wednesday at home against Fort Wayne. What can Wheeling do in that game to take care of the Komets?
After this weekend’s series, 13 of the Nailers’ remaining 31 games are against teams from the Central Division, of which five will be against Fort Wayne once the game from last Sunday gets rescheduled. The Komets enter their games this weekend against Cincinnati and Tahoe sitting in second place in the Central, just four points behind Toledo for the division lead.
Fort Wayne has been a much better road team, accumulating a record of 14-3-4 when away from the Memorial Coliseum, than at home, where they only have a record of 7-7-2. While they have played five more games on the road than at home this year, their goal differential is considerably higher in away games, sitting at a +5 at home (51 goals for to 46 goals against), while it jumps to +22 away from home (71 goals for to 49 goals against).
While it is impressive how much their goal total jumps between those situations, the lack of goals against away from home tells the story. Their defense gives up 2.88 goals against per game at home, while that drops to 2.33 goals against per game away. The Nailers will have to work hard in this game to make sure they get that third goal to beat their average, then hope their defense is up to the task to keep the Komets off the board to bring home the win.
The Nailers enter the weekend only nine points ahead of both Maine and Adirondack for the North Division lead. What does Wheeling need to do the rest of the way to ensure they stay in that top position?
With no games remaining against the Mariners this season, and only two left with the Thunder in March, earning points head-to-head against these teams isn’t where the Nailers will ensure they stay in the division lead. Of their 34 games remaining on the schedule for this season, only 15 are against teams currently not in a playoff spot for the Nailers. By comparison, Maine has 20 of their remaining 35 games against non-playoff teams while Adirondack has 19 of their remaining 35 games against teams on the outside looking in.
That means Wheeling has the hardest path remaining of the teams at the top. They will have to play hard against good teams, but I think that’s a good thing for this team. While it makes the path to the first spot in the division more difficult, I feel like having a harder schedule will help prepare this team for the playoffs even better. You are playing good teams night in and night out, steeling yourself for what you’re going to face once in the postseason. As long as the Nailers make the dance, which at this point feels most likely to happen, there’s always a chance. Let’s get ready to cheer this team on to stay where they are in the standings and hopefully beyond the regular season.
