The Nailers have managed to bring back the roller coaster ride of their season, following up three consecutive losses with three straight wins now. With only two games left to their season this weekend, what do you expect them to do to prepare for the offseason?
Well, I guess having that type of roller coaster is better than the alternative of going 3-10-0 during the month of March, including losing the first six games of the month in a row. Having a month like that is especially tough for Wheeling, consider that every other month this season they were no more than three games below .500 during that particular month (1-3-0 in October, 6-5-0 in November, 7-6-1 in December, 5-3-3 in January, 4-7-1 in February, and 3-2-0 so far in April), which really shows how important having a month like they did in March was to the Nailers. The other thing that really helps is how strong the Nailers have looked during this three-game run, playing a strong 200-foot game up and down the ice and creating opportunities.
Of course, there were still some issues with their game, such as the power play only going two for eleven in these three games, although that’s still better than their season average of 14.7% success with the man advantage. But they’ve definitely found a way to focus themselves on finishing this season on a strong note in preparation for a long offseason.
These two games remaining this weekend against Iowa don’t necessarily mean much in terms of final standings or what will happen to this team, but staying focused and playing strong hockey can help management see what can happen if they find a way to bring some of these guys back. The younger players have shown they’re ready to play on a professional level, some of the older guys who have been here all season are showing a little more leadership, and the goaltending has been rather steady, unlike earlier in the year. While the Nailers are playing against one of the worst teams in the entire ECHL in the Heartlanders, by continuing to play hard, it’s easy to see they still care about these games and are listening to the coach and working within the system.
For me, my focus during these last couple games will be seeing what they have from these young players. Matt Koopman and Ross Krieger have found a way to play some strong offensive hockey during their time here in Wheeling after making the transition from the collegiate levels, and if they’re interested in continuing their professional careers next season, I expect them to show it on the ice that they want to continue to play. Tyler Drevitch has continued to have a strong season, although his penalty numbers have spiked considerably as the season went on, so he has some things to continue to work on to prepare for next year, hopefully in a Nailers uniform.
While these games may be meaningless when it comes to the standings, they have a lot of meaning for the players out on the ice, and I will be watching to see what they continue to show us by competing hard and earning roster spots for next season.
With their season officially coming to an end after their game on Saturday against Iowa, what do you expect the Nailers to do in preparation for next season?
Obviously, with the end of a season (especially without a postseason run), a number of things are on the horizon. The team will hold exit interviews with the players to see what they think about how this season went and discuss their futures. The media will be given a chance to speak to players and coaches one more time to get their feelings on the end of their year. The team could also take advantage of this time and see which players who aren’t on a contract for next year could be interested in rejoining the team for another year. So, although their time together as a team, playing games and practicing and the like is coming to an end, there’s always more to do.
Another potentially interesting development will be the completion of a few trades the team made that included futures. The teams involved in those trades give lists of players available to the other team, and that team can choose a player off that list to complete the trade that was made. I’ll be interested to see who the Nailers decide to make available in those futures they offered, as well as who they are able to bring back for futures they received in their trades this season. It’s always interesting to see what teams are willing to offer to complete their trades, and I’m sure the Nailers will find a way to improve their roster with the players they are able to bring back.
And speaking of improving the roster, Wheeling will also have a chance to see what players around the league don’t have contracts for next season and try to bring them to the Friendly City. Not every player on every roster is on an AHL or NHL contract, and there’s a very good chance that good players will find themselves on the free agent market without a deal for next year. I’m sure Coach Army already has an idea of the players who are due to hit the open market at this season’s conclusion that will fit his system here with the Nailers.
He knows which players are able to play with the speed he’s hoping to see, who can play on the specialty teams, and what they can do to make the roster better. At least, I hope they’re able to do it in order to improve their chances of making the Kelly Cup playoffs at the conclusion of next season.
The Nailers have managed to score first in exactly half of the 70 games they have played so far this season but are the fourth-worst team in the league in terms of winning when scoring first. Why do you think they struggled so mightily to hold on to leads compared to the rest of the league?
Despite finding a way to score first in 35 of their games so far, the Nailers record in those games is 20-14-1-0, which is good enough for a .586 winning percentage. By comparison, the league average winning percentage for teams who score first in all games played so far this season is .711, which means the Nailers are well below average in that respect. The best team in the league in games where they score first is Cincinnati, who has managed to do it 39 times so far and have earned a record of 32-3-3-1 in those games for a .872 winning percentage.
I don’t necessarily expect Wheeling to hit numbers quite that good, but better than what they were able to achieve this season will be necessary to see more success next year.
The majority of the league has managed to turn early success in games into wins more consistently than the Nailers managed to this season. Giving yourself a lead in half of your games is better than what half of the league has managed to do this season, so that makes it even more important to find a way to maintain and expand the leads you manage to earn is absolutely required when fighting for your playoff lives earlier in the year.
If Wheeling could have managed to turn just five or six of those regulation losses they earned in games where they scored first into wins, they would be back into the conversation for a playoff spot this season, which makes it hurt that much more that they weren’t able to do it.
There’s any number of reasons for why the Nailers weren’t able to find more success in those situations, from issues with goaltending struggling to make necessary stops, defensemen not working hard enough in their zone to limit opportunities, or special teams not holding up their end of the bargain. But one big issue I noticed a lot this season was the failure of the forwards to cover appropriately in their defensive zone and trying too hard to spring forward. I know capitalizing on momentum after scoring is important, but you must imagine that the other team is going to come out after giving up the opening goal and work even harder to tie the game.
In that case, you have to be able to trust your team to work hard to shut down opponents in their own zone first and earn the puck to push it forward.
If the forwards are unwilling or unable to shut down their own zone first, there will never be the chance to push forward harder to expand the lead. I would love to see more forwards in Wheeling next year who are willing to work hard in the defensive zone to create offense for the team.
With their final two games of the season against divisional opponents, the Nailers had an awful record within their division this season. What do they need to do to reverse that trend and have more success in those games next season?
When the schedule is made in the ECHL every year, the majority of games for every team are scheduled against divisional opponents. In a season like this where your division is led by some really good teams in Cincinnati and Toledo, it’s going to make it rather difficult to have a good record within the division. But through 52 games played in the division, the Nailers have managed to go 18-30-4-0 against the other six teams in the Central division, one of the worst divisional records in the entire ECHL.
The two worst teams in the league, Norfolk (18-30-1-1 in the North) and Iowa (18-26-5-1 in the Central) are the only other teams in the league to fail to reach 20 wins within their own division, and as I said already, they were the worst teams in the league, which isn’t great company to keep if you’re Wheeling.
To have such a poor record within your own division when you’re playing 54 games against divisional opponents in the season will result in a terrible record and a failure to reach the postseason more times than not. Especially when three teams in the division (Cincinnati, Indy, and Toledo) are winning more than 30 games in the division. Obviously, finding a way to change this is necessary for next season to be more successful than this one has been. Finding ways to play strong hockey against divisional opponents should be the primary focus of Wheeling this offseason.
They need to figure out what these other teams have done that has allowed them to see the levels of success they have and figure out how to beat them at their own game. If those teams are successful due to playing with speed, try to build a team that can counteract that and play with the puck more to keep them from using that speed against you.
If they do it with strong goaltending, put together a team that is able to create opportunities by forcing the goalie out of his comfort zone, whether that’s making him move around his crease to keep up with strong passing or earning odd-man breaks against him. Considering 54 out of their 72 games are within the division, finding a way to be stronger in those games has to be a top priority for the Nailers going into next season.
Considering you came into this article as just a hockey fan and not a writer, what did you learn from this experience that will help you improve this space for the 2023-24 season? Did this give you a new or better appreciation for the Nailers or for people who write about sports for a living?
As a person who does math for a living, the thought of trying to sit down and write about something, even something I love like hockey, every week almost made me break out in hives.
Luckily, I have a lot of supportive people around me who have given me really good feedback throughout this season, and I feel like I’ve really come into my own in how to present this information in a usable way to the readers. That being said, I wish I could have done this for at least a couple more weeks, if the Nailers could have found a way to continue to play beyond this weekend, but I’ll have to take what they were able to give me and enjoy this along the way. It has definitely been an eye-opening experience for me in terms of how to write things that are informative while also being what I think is interesting enough to keep people wanting to read it, which is really the most important thing when writing for public consumption.
I could sit here and just keep pumping out statistics and make it bland (at least, bland for the average reader, but utterly interesting to someone as numbers-focused as I am). But I really wanted to make this interesting while also showing the world of hockey in a way that the average viewer may not see it, and I really hope you all enjoyed being along for the ride. I really look forward to hopefully getting to do this for you again next season.
As for my appreciation for the work of those who do this for a living, it’s definitely opened my eyes a little bit at the thought of doing this every day, not just once a week.
Both my wife and my brother did their undergrad schooling for journalism (although neither of them works in journalism, so take that for what it’s worth), so I already had an idea of what it took to do something like this, but the thought of having to pump out not just consistent articles but ones that people would want to read on a more consistent basis is hard to imagine for someone who doesn’t have that background. And for my appreciation for the Nailers, I will say that it’s made me think more about what these guys work at day in and day out, not knowing if they’re still going to be here or Wilkes-Barre or wherever else opportunity may strike.
They are the definition of professional, between everything they do in the community, different media appearances throughout the season (between the Power Hour and the players who were able to join us during the sports hour on River Talk [quick plug, every Thursday from 5 pm to 6 pm on River Talk 100.1/100.9]), to practices and games.
They have given everything they could for 70 games thus far, and while it, unfortunately, wasn’t enough to continue their season, I will say I’ve come away from this with a greater appreciation for what these guys have gone through this year, and I look forward to seeing them do it again come October.
