The Nailers got back to their winning ways last weekend, splitting with Fort Wayne before winning Sunday against Cincinnati. What did Wheeling do well to take two out of the three games?
It has to feel pretty good for the guys on the team to be able to walk away from the weekend having earned four out of a possible six points when you’re in the heart of a playoff race. Looking at the other teams Wheeling is in the battle with, Trois-Rivières only managed a split in two games with Reading while Norfolk followed up a mid-week loss to Maine by going 1-1-1 against Worcester, giving the Nailers just a little bit of breathing room from them.
They still have some work to do (which we’ll talk about shortly), but these points really helped push Wheeling closer to a spot in the postseason.
Friday’s game went in the way of the Komets early, as Fort Wayne led in shots after the first period 17-6, with a number of those being quality chances. Yet the Nailers found a way to have the 1-0 through 20 minutes thanks to Matty De St. Phalle finding the net. The second period was just about the complete opposite of the first, with Wheeling having the shots advantage 16-8 but Fort Wayne found a way to capitalize right in the middle of the period, and the teams went to the third tied.
The Nailers got back on the scoreboard less than four minutes into the third as David Jankowski netted the eventual game-winner, followed by Kyle Jackson getting an insurance marker on the power play with less than nine minutes remaining, and Wheeling came away with the victory.
Saturday’s game started off hot for the Nailers as they scored less than three minutes into the contest off a sharp one-timer from Jordan Martel. Another goal came later in the frame as Matthew Quercia got one with just over five minutes left, and the first period ended 2-0 in favor of the good guys.
The Komets got one back just over five minutes into the second, but Logan Pietila gave Wheeling their two-goal edge back with just over six minutes left, and they took that advantage into the third. Unfortunately, the third period went hard in the direction of Fort Wayne, with the Komets managing to score four goals in the period, the last of which came on an empty net with just over a minute remaining, and they left the Friendly City with the split of these two games.
Wheeling came out hopping on Sunday against a Cincinnati team they’ve gotten the better of in every contest between the two thus far this season. Kyle Jackson scored his second of the weekend just over two minutes into the game, and Isaac Beliveau cashed in to double the lead for the Nailers just before the halfway mark of the period, and Wheeling had a 2-0 lead going into the intermission.
The Cyclones managed to score one of their own just three minutes into the second while shorthanded, which is the sixth such goal the Nailers have given up this season. Cincinnati pressed to tie the game before the horn, but to no avail as Taylor Gauthier kept every shot out of the net and Wheeling went into the third with the advantage.
The third period saw Cincy continue to push to tie the game before a late power play allowed Zach Gallant of Wheeling to score the insurance goal they needed with just under five minutes to play and the Nailers managed to come away with two more points in their pocket to push them closer to clinching that spot in the postseason.
The Nailers now go on the road for two in Toledo on Friday and Saturday before heading to Indy on Sunday. What does Wheeling need to do to hopefully maximize their point earning in these games?
Nothing quite like getting two games against your longtime biggest rival right towards the end of the season. Follow that up with a Sunday afternoon game against a Fuel team that is trying to claw their way back into a playoff spot and this weekend could be huge for a number of reasons.
Also, with Norfolk (at Reading) and Trois-Rivières (at home against Adirondack then two at Worcester) having slightly easier opponents, these games mean all that much more to Wheeling.
The weekend begins with two games in Toledo against a Walleye team who have already clinched a playoff spot and currently sit nine points clear of Fort Wayne for first in the Central Division. Toledo has a very impressive 20-6-5 record on home ice this season, along with a record of 3-2-0 against Wheeling specifically on the year. Brandon Hawkins once again leads the league in points this season, so playing strong defense on him could go a long way to helping the Nailers in these games.
Despite how well the Wheeling penalty kill group has done this season, the Toledo power play is even more impressive, sitting first in the league with a 26.4% success rate, jumping up to 28.9% success at home. If the Nailers want to capitalize on these games, it will be even more important to stay out of the box against a high-powered team like the Walleye.
Then on Sunday, Wheeling heads to Indy for the final game against the Fuel this season. The Nailers have a 4-0-1 record against them so far this year. Indy currently sits on the outside looking in with 56 points on the season, just three points behind both Bloomington and Kalamazoo, but with a game in hand on the Bison.
The Fuel haven’t done very well at home this season, earning a 9-14-4-2 record there with a -16-goal differential. Indy’s penalty kill group has done well this season, sitting in third in the ECHL overall, but that’s been buoyed by being the best in the league on the road with a 92.6% success rate away from home. Contrast that with their stats at home, where they sit in 22nd place in the league with a 77.9% success rate.
If Wheeling can continue to get the man advantage in this game and cash in, it should help them come away with two more points towards their goal of getting to the postseason.
With teams in the ECHL starting to clinch playoff spots, the Nailers magic number is currently at 13. What will it take over the remaining 12 games Wheeling has on their schedule to get there?
An important thing to remember about a team having a magic number is that it doesn’t mean the team, in this case, the Nailers, has to earn that many points themselves to clinch. The 13 points Wheeling needs to assure themselves a spot can be a combination of earned points as well as points lost by the first team out of playoff contention, meaning Reading for our purposes.
This means that, if Wheeling were to find a way to sweep the weekend against Toledo and Indy, while Reading gets swept at home by Norfolk, that would knock the Nailers’ magic number all the way down to one (six points gained with wins and an additional six points lost out on by the Royals).
Even if Reading does find a way to help Wheeling towards their goal, the ultimate help for the Nailers is to just continue to find ways to win. If the Royals do somehow get swept for the weekend by the Admirals, just one regulation loss by Wheeling this weekend would drop them into a tie with Norfolk in points for second place in the division, as the Nailers currently hold just a two-point advantage with the same number of games played by each team.
If Wheeling is looking to start their journey towards the Kelly Cup in the Friendly City, winning games down the stretch is the best way to ensure that happens.
And it’s not like the Nailers can’t do it. Of their remaining schedule, six games are against teams currently on the outside looking in for the playoffs, five are against teams that have already clinched their spot in the playoffs (and most likely will be winning their divisions in Toledo and Trois-Rivières), and one against an expansion Bloomington team who are holding on tight to a spot in the postseason.
Assuming things fall as they are expected, this schedule could work well in Wheeling’s favor. Now all they have to do is go out there and take advantage of it to stay in second place in the North Division.
Of those remaining 12 games, exactly half are against Central Division foes, while the last six are split between Reading and Trois-Rivières. How does that play into Wheeling’s favor to hopefully get that magic number down to zero?
To me, this is the most important thing to note for their remaining schedule. Most teams down the stretch will play most of their games against divisional opponents. And that’s mostly the case for the Nailers, as they finish with three at home against the Royals before finishing with three on the road with the Lions. But having an additional six games against teams from our previous division that we have developed rivalries with to lead into those games could also help Wheeling out due to their familiarity with the opponents.
The other thing to look at with this is just how well the Nailers have done against teams from the Central Division this season.
Wheeling currently sits with a 20-6-1 record against teams from that division, as compared to a 13-9-2-1 record against teams in the North Division. The only Central team the Nailers currently have a losing record against is Toledo at 2-3-0, while they have an undefeated record against three of those teams (Bloomington, Cincinnati, and Iowa) along with a 4-0-1 record against Indy.
By comparison, the only team in the North Division Wheeling currently enjoys a winning record against is Reading, sitting at 6-2-0 with three left to play against them. Against the other five teams in the division, the Nailers have (technically) a .500 record against them all, sitting at 7-7-2-1 overall.
So, maybe having so many games against our old division rivals has actually worked in our favor this year, and if that’s the case, here’s to hoping the schedule works out very similarly in the years to come.
Despite only having six games left at WesBanco Arena this regular season, the Nailers still have some fun promotions left on the schedule. Which one are you most looking forward to?
Normally once you get to this point in the season, the only real promotion left for a team is the final home game of the year, generally known as “shirts off our backs” night. Of course, the Nailers still have their normal Frosty Friday promotions they do for every Friday home game, and the postgame skate after the Sunday games is still on the schedule.
But in addition to those regular events, the Nailers found a way to push two really great promotions to right at the end of the year. First up will be next Saturday night, March 29, as the Nailers hold Black and Gold night at WesBanco Arena.
A rally towel giveaway as well as an appearance by Ryan Shazier highlight that night. Then the following Saturday, April 5, is this year’s edition of Wizards and Wands night. For those of you who have been at this before, you know how much fun this event is, with the wand giveaway as well as butterbeer available for sale on the concourse and house competitions by side of the arena.
For anyone who is interested in these and doesn’t have tickets yet, go get yours now, and I’ll see you at the rink.
