The Nailers got back to their winning ways last weekend, beating Indy on Friday before returning home and taking care of business against Reading on Saturday. How did Wheeling manage to earn those important points?
Well, isn’t it nice to be able to talk about a winning weekend for the Nailers again? Considering both games were against teams that are currently working hard to earn their way back into a playoff spot, seeing Wheeling come out and push as hard as they did to come out with four points to keep pace with Trois-Rivières was good.
Not to mention, having the team put 10 goals on the board in two games (as opposed to the last two weekends, where they got 10 goals in three games and five goals in three games, respectively) gives me hope that the offense is back on track.
Friday’s game started well for the Nailers, as they recorded a 12-4 advantage in shots in the first period. The only issue is, the only shot that found the back of the net was one by Indy with under a second left in the period, putting Wheeling down 1-0 after one. The second went just as well shot-wise for the Nailers, as they held a 12-6 lead in shots in the second period (24-10 for the game to that point).
This time though, Wheeling was able to put three of those shots in the net thanks to Chrystopher Collin, Matt Koopman, and Gabe Klassen, with the last two coming while shorthanded, to give the visitors a 3-1 lead heading into the third. In the third, the Nailers put the game firmly in their grasp with two more goals less than a minute into the period, scored by Kyle Jackson and Matty De St. Phalle, before a second tally by De St. Phalle made it 6-1 for Wheeling.
The Fuel managed to score two more later in the period, one shorthanded and one on the power play, but the Nailers came away with the 6-3 victory.
Saturday’s game saw the Nailers come out firing early again, earning a 16-7 shot advantage over Reading in the first period. This time though, two of those shots found their way into the net via the sticks of Gabe Klassen and Logan Pietila to give Wheeling the 2-0 advantage after the first 20 minutes.
Kyle Jackson extended the lead to 3-0 just under six minutes into the second, and that held until the Royals finally broke through late in the period to make it a 3-1 game going into the third. Reading came out hot early in the final frame, scoring just 39 seconds in to make it a contest, but less than three minutes later, Jordan Martel scored the eventual game winner on Wheeling’s only power play of the night.
Reading would get one more goal late with their goalie pulled, but it wasn’t enough as the Nailers came away with the 4-3 victory thanks to 23 saves made by Jaxon Castor.
The Nailers now go back on the road again, playing Saturday against South Carolina before Sunday and Monday games against Greenville. What does Wheeling need to do to take care of business on this trip?
The good news for the Nailers is they catch these two teams just as Trois-Rivières begins their extremely long series with Adirondack, with the Lions having lost two of their three games last weekend to bring Wheeling back within one point of the division lead.
South Carolina comes into their game with the Nailers having lost their last two to Orlando (prior to their game on Thursday in Savannah) but still sitting comfortably in fourth place in the South Division by 13 points over Atlanta.
This game could turn out to be strength versus strength, as the Stingrays average the most penalty minutes per game in the ECHL at 17.48, but their penalty kill at home sits third in the league with an 85.9% success rate. However, the Wheeling power play on the road is sixth in the league with a 23.7% success rate.
Also, South Carolina has a record of 2-7-1-1 when trailing after one, and 1-9-2-0 when behind going into the third. If the Nailers can get their power play to break through and score a goal to take an early lead, it could go a long way towards helping Wheeling earn the victory.
From there, the Nailers head north to Greenville for two against the Swamp Rabbits, who are currently in last place in the South Division. Greenville has struggled in their home games this year, with an 8-10-1-2 record to go along with a -19-goal differential.
Their penalty kill group at home is eleventh in the league with an 81.7% success rate, but their power play struggles, sitting in 21st in the league with a 16.7% success rate.
If Wheeling is able to come out and use their team speed and jump on them early, the Nailers could find themselves with another winning weekend on their hands.
The Nailers have slowly been moving their way up the charts in terms of penalty minutes earned per game. Do you think this has an effect on how their record has gone recently?
Just know that when I say they’re moving their way up, I don’t mean they suddenly find themselves within the top half of the league in penalty minutes per game. Wheeling still finds themselves relatively low on the list compared to where they have been in recent years, so it’s still an improvement over where we have seen them.
That being said, the Nailers have spent a lot of time this year down near the bottom and well under 10 penalty minutes per game. However, at this point, the Nailers now sit seventh from the bottom in this category, averaging 10.34 penalty minutes per game. That may not seem like a huge jump, but that’s about one extra penalty every other game, which puts your shorthanded group out on the ice for more time, and it takes away from the time available for the skill guys who don’t see the ice as much in those situations.
When you’re a team built like Wheeling is, you must use the advantages you have to force the other team into awkward situations and give yourself every chance to capitalize.
The Nailers aren’t built to be rough and tumble (aside from possibly Quercia and Laviolette), they have a considerable amount of speed and tenacity in order to put their forecheck front and center. A lot of the goals I’ve seen Wheeling score this year have come from pushing hard in the offensive zone to take pucks away, or jumping fast and getting behind the other team’s defense to get breakaway chances.
I’d like to see the Nailers try to cut into the penalty minutes they earn per game a bit and hopefully draw more penalties on the other team in order to get the scorers on the ice with more room to operate. That, to me, would be a winning combination for this team.
The Nailers have earned an equal number of wins at home as on the road so far this year (15), despite playing four more games away from WesBanco Arena. How do you think this translates to the games they have left on the schedule?
You know, for years now I’ve said that, for a team to be successful in hockey, they need to win about 70-75% of their games at home, while winning over 50% of their games on the road. To this point in the season, the Nailers have won 15 out of 20 home games for a 75% winning percentage, and 15 out of 24 on the road for a 62.5% winning percentage.
And to that end, they currently sit in second place in their division but well within striking distance of jumping into first, depending on how this weekend goes.
As for how that could translate to the rest of the year, assuming these win percentages hold steady, Wheeling has 16 games remaining at home and 12 more on the road the rest of the way for this regular season (including this weekend’s games). Having a 75% win percentage would give them another 12 wins at home, while their 62.5% win percentage away from home would translate to approximately eight more wins there (rounding up).
Winning 20 of their last 28 games (ignoring the loser point if any of their losses are in overtime or the shootout) would give the Nailers 102 points in the standings.
That would mean the worst Wheeling could finish would be third place in the division, but Norfolk would need to just about win out for that to happen (they would need to average 1.65 standings points per game remaining on their schedule). Trois-Rivières would still have the inside track to win the division, as they would only need 1.38 standings points per game played to stay ahead of the Nailers on that pace, while they have averaged 1.47 standings points per game played to this point.
I still think it’s feasible to believe Wheeling can jump them and finish in first, but they’re going to have to push hard over the next two months to get there and hopefully stay there.
Attendance for the Nailers has been terrific to this point this season, averaging close to 3,000 fans per game through their 20 home games. What does this mean for the success of the team on the ice for their last 16 games at WesBanco Arena this season?
The Nailers, through 20 games played at home, have welcomed just shy of 55,000 people (54,952 to be exact, for all those math nerds like me) through the doors of WesBanco Arena on a game night. There have been some nights, such as the New Years Eve game, where over 4,000 fans walked through the doors at The Bank.
Seeing that many fans in the building in person was a rather intense experience that evening.
Last season was one of the best seasons the Nailers have had attendance-wise in years, having 80,529 people in attendance during the regular season, for an average of 2,301 per game.
On their current pace, they should beat that number easily this year, currently on pace (if their current average holds) of hitting almost 99,000 fans at their 36 home games. In order to beat last year’s number from where they currently are, they would need to get about 1,600 fans in the building for each of their last 16 home contests.
I personally would love to see them demolish last year’s attendance figure. I feel like this is a great sign to those in charge just how much the people of Wheeling and the entire Ohio Valley love their hometown hockey team and want to see live sports.
Think about how awesome it would be to see their attendance number rise close to 100,000 and knowing you were at least a part of that number. I know I have made it to several games already this year, and I have plans to attend even more coming down the stretch, and I would love to see all of you there cheering on the Nailers too. Here’s to hoping to see you at the rink.
