The Nailers split the two games in Fort Wayne, losing on Friday before finally picking up a win over the Komets on Saturday. How did Wheeling manage to salvage at least some points from these games?
While it would’ve been nice to earn wins in both games and put a little space between Wheeling and Fort Wayne in the standings, I think you have to be happy the Nailers earned at least two points out of this trip. Saturday’s game was the first victory for the Nailers against the Komets this season and, as for playing in Fort Wayne, it was their first victory there (in the regular season) since 2022.
The Komets regularly get over 8,000 fans per game, so to go into that arena in front of that large of a crowd and bring home a win still was beneficial in terms of where they want the season to go here in a few weeks.
On Friday, the Nailers came out flying, trying hard to score first and get things going in their direction early. Coming into the weekend, Wheeling had scored first in 31 of their 56 games to that point and had won almost 75% of the time when they were able to do so.
The Nailers managed to outshoot the Komets 15-6 in the period, but the Fort Wayne goalie was well up to the task and ensured the score remained deadlocked at zero after 20 minutes of play.
The second period was played a little more evenly than the first, with both teams having chances to score. Despite both teams getting two power play chances in the game, neither team was able to take advantage of the extra skater (both teams combined for a total of 0-for-5 on the man advantage on the night).
Both goaltenders found ways to stand tall in the period, and the score after the second matched the score after the first, which meant Wheeling had 20 minutes remaining to try to break the deadlock.
Unfortunately, it wasn’t meant to be, as Fort Wayne finally cashed in on a very close play at the goal line that stood up after a replay by the referees just under six minutes into the period. The Nailers, to their credit, didn’t stop working hard and appeared ready to tie the game again. Wheeling had a total of 14 shots in the final frame, but the Komets goalie worked just as hard in his crease and kept every shot out of his goal to earn a 40-save shutout of the Nailers and brought his team just that much closer to catching Wheeling in the standings.
For the Saturday contest, almost 9,500 fans filed into the arena with the hope that their team would earn the win and move up in the standings. It looked promising for them early, as the Komets scored just over three minutes into the contest on the power play to send their fans into a frenzy. The Nailers, showing the resilience they have all season, managed to bounce back and tie the score just over two minutes later thanks to a fantastic individual effort by Matt Koopman, but even that wasn’t enough as Fort Wayne scored again four minutes later to take another lead at 2-1. That score held until five minutes later, when a penalty against the Komets allowed the Wheeling power play to get their first chance of the game, and Isaac Belliveau cashed in to tie the game again. It felt like that score would hold for the final five minutes, but that wasn’t to be as Fort Wayne scored again with a little over two minutes left in the period to take a 3-2 lead into the first intermission.
Coming back out for the second, the Nailers looked ready to make a push to get back into the game, and it happened quickly, as Evan Vierling scored a minute and a half into the frame to tie the game for the third time on the night. This Wheeling team has been very resilient all season, coming back many times throughout the year and finding ways to win games despite struggling here and there. And this would be the case again, as Justin McRae would score his first professional goal after joining the team following the conclusion of his final season at the University of Ottawa back at the end of February to give the Nailers the 4-3 lead, after which Fort Wayne changed the man between the pipes. Despite a big push by the Komets to try to tie the score again, Taylor Gauthier stood strong like he has all season, and Wheeling was just 20 minutes away from finally defeating Fort Wayne.
The third period turned into a bit of a back-and-forth contest, as both teams had multiple good chances. Wheeling worked hard to try to put the game away, while Fort Wayne wanted to at least force overtime to earn a point in the standings. Gauthier had to work hard despite facing only nine shots in the period, as his defensive group in front of him kept things to the outside as best they could, and when the horn sounded, Wheeling came out of it with the big win to keep pace in the division standings but, more importantly, keep a team that’s trailing them currently from gaining any points at all.
The Nailers played their first game of their three-game set against Iowa on Wednesday, losing 3-2 in overtime. What did Wheeling do to earn a point against the Heartlanders?
After such a huge win against a team close to them in the standings, you had to hope the Nailers would keep up the energy going into a matchup against a team they should be able to handle. Iowa came into the last three games these two teams will play against one another this season in last place in the division and not really a threat to get back into it with so few games left. Despite having a few guys have some good seasons, they’ve been inconsistent overall, and the goaltenders haven’t made the plays needed to help their team win more.
Wheeling got a power play not even five minutes into the game and were able to take advantage of it, with Justin Lee capitalizing to give the Nailers a 1-0 lead only nine seconds into the man advantage. The Nailers continued to push to try to open the game up a little more and give themselves a cushion, but the Heartlanders were up to the task and hung tough despite being outshot by Wheeling in the period. Then, with under seven minutes left in the period, Iowa got one into the net behind Taylor Gauthier, leading to a 1-1 tie at the end of the period.
The second period started off with some fireworks, as Matthew Quercia got into a fight just 19 seconds into it. Unfortunately, Peter Laviolette also engaged in some fisticuffs after the first fight had ended, leading to him and the Iowa player he fought being shown the gate with a game misconduct for a secondary altercation. Things managed to settle down a little from there, as both teams worked hard to break the tie, which Iowa managed to do almost eight and a half minutes into the middle frame to take a 2-1 lead. The score stayed that way for a while until, with five and a half minutes left in the period, Iowa took a penalty and Wheeling managed to score yet another power play goal, this time with only eight seconds left on the penalty clock to tie the game again heading to the locker room.
Coming out for the third period, you had to assume there was more exciting play to come, especially when the Heartlanders took another penalty just a minute and a half into the frame. The Nailers power play had managed to go 2-for-2 to that point but failed to capitalize for a third time on the night and the game remained tied. Both teams had plenty of chances, with shots in the third being 12-11 in favor of Wheeling, but neither team managed to find the net and the game headed to overtime still tied at two. As one would expect with a 3-on-3 overtime, action went back and forth for well over three minutes, with both teams getting caught with tired players stuck out on the ice. Finally, with just over three minutes left in the extra frame, Iowa scored on an odd-man break to keep Wheeling from earning the extra point.
The Nailers will play their last two games against Iowa on Friday and Saturday this weekend. What do they need to do to maximize the points earned from this trip?
When you’re a team that finds itself in the situation the Nailers are currently in, sitting in second place in the division but only four points clear of the first team outside of a playoff position, you have to take advantage of playing teams who have nothing left to play for like Iowa. The problem is, when a team has nothing to play for, they play a lot looser and want to be a spoiler for the teams who are in a dogfight like Wheeling is in. The Nailers have to relax and focus on just getting to their game, force Iowa to work hard to try to advance the puck when they get it and create opportunities off of turnovers to give themselves good looks on goal.
As I said in the previous question, the men playing goal for the Heartlanders this season just haven’t been good enough to keep their team competitive. Their best goalie, Drew DeRidder, has won exactly half of the games he’s played in this year, with a goals-against-average of 3.00 and a save percentage of .910. Those are middling numbers, especially when compared to the best goaltender in the league this year on the other end of the ice in Taylor Gauthier, so Wheeling really needs to up the pressure on the guys between the pipes, which should give the Nailers a good chance to maximize their point potential in these two games.
In addition, Iowa has the worst home ice advantage in the entire league, drawing under 2,000 fans on average per contest, and that shows with their home record at 10-12-2-1. The Heartlanders have been outscored on home ice by a whopping 20 goals (63 goals for, 83 goals against), and their specialty teams on home ice (especially the penalty kill) have been pretty bad this season. If the Nailers can come out and put up some points quickly in games and find ways to capitalize on the man advantage when given the chance, there’s a good chance they’ll come away with four points.
Looking ahead, the Nailers have only 13 games left in the regular season (including the two this weekend) and are still sitting in second place in the Central Division. What will it take the rest of the way to continue playing beyond April 13?
There are plenty of silly scenarios you can play out to determine what Wheeling needs to do to clinch a spot in the Kelly Cup playoffs. Like saying “if the team in fifth (currently Kalamazoo) wins all 16 games they have left on the season, including their game in Wheeling next Friday, what do the Nailers need to do to stay in a spot?” Is it possible for the K-Wings to go on a run like that and rocket up the standings? Of course it is, but it’s not very likely, so I like to look at things from a more realistic perspective.
I’m going to compare Wheeling to Kalamazoo because, as the first team out, that’s the team the Nailers must stay ahead of to keep in a playoff spot. While Cincinnati still technically can get in, I wouldn’t count on that to happen, so I’m most worried about the K-Wings at this point. According to the current standings, Kalamazoo currently has 63 points in 56 games played, which means they could have earned a total of 112 points if they were undefeated at this particular point in the season. If you divide that out, that means the Wings have a point percentage this season of 0.5625, meaning they’ve earned 56.25% of the points available to them on the season.
With the number of games they have left in the regular season, they have 32 standings points available to them the rest of the way. If you multiply that out by the average points they earn over the year, that means they can be expected to end with an additional 18 points in their remaining games, giving them 81 points for the year when they finish game 72, if their point percentage holds steady the rest of the way.
If Wheeling wants to make the playoffs, all they have to do is finish with more points than Kalamazoo. With 67 points in their pockets through 59 games, the Nailers have a points percentage of 0.5678, or they have earned 56.78% of the points available to them. In the remaining 13 games they have, Wheeling would need to earn 15 points to get to 82 and outpace the Wings. That’s a points percentage of 0.5769, which is slightly higher than what their output has been to this point of the season.
Although it feels good to see the Nailers in second place, this is a very long-winded (and nerdy) way of showing that the Nailers still have work to do to make sure they stay in a playoff spot coming down the stretch. That being said, I do believe in this team, and I fully trust that Coach Derek Army will keep this team focused and on the path they need to be on to play beyond the end of the regular season.
On Tuesday, the Nailers will play in their third education day game of the season, but their only one on home ice this year. What kind of advantage does this give Wheeling in that game?
The Nailers have already played in two education day games on the road this season, once in Toledo and again in Reading. In talking to some of the players and my good friend DJ Abisalih, these games are always some of the most chaotic situations to be thrown into. Anyone who spends considerable time around children knows they love to make noise just for the sake of making noise, and that can be disorienting for everyone involved. But that can definitely play well into the hands of the home team, as the road team has to deal not only with the insanity happening around the rink, but also being on an unfamiliar surface, whereas the home team gets to play half of their games every year on that surface and has a better feel for how the puck may bounce and such.
In the case of next Tuesday’s game against the Indy Fuel at the godawful time of 10:45 am, I fully expect having an arena full of 5,000 screaming children to play to the advantage of the Nailers. The kids who are there to actually enjoy the game will know when to make noise and what for, while the ones who are just happy to be away from the school for the day will help contribute to the madness. I hope Wheeling can take advantage of the situation and beat Indy to help keep some space between the two teams in the standings.
