The Nailers went 1-2 over the weekend against the second-best team in the entire league, the Idaho Steelheads. What do you think the Nailers did well in that series, and what in that series showed you where the Nailers still need to improve in order to be considered among the league’s best like their opponent?
Well, that was bound to happen, especially when you run into a buzzsaw of a team that’s currently battling for the top spot in the entire league. It really did feel like, despite the scores of the two losses, the Nailers were in each game and could’ve just as easily won two of the games in that series, instead of being on the losing end for the weekend. In their two losses, Wheeling had a 2-0 lead on Friday, and managed to tie the game on Sunday more than halfway through the second period before Idaho poured it on.
In Friday’s game, Wheeling did what they’ve done a number of times this year and scored quickly, with Dillon Hamaliuk scoring just six minutes in. Last week, I noticed how they struggled to maintain leads when they did that so far this year, but they managed to keep it into the second, where they scored only 10 seconds into the period to extend it to a 2-0 Nailers lead. From there, Idaho finally got into the swing of the game, scoring the last five goals of the game, including two on the power play, to take the first game of the series by a 5-2 final.
Saturday’s game was almost an exact reversal of Friday’s game, with Idaho potting one eight minutes into the first and following it with their second of the game only 1:16 into the second. The Nailers were able to pull it together after that though, putting five goals in behind Thomson, the goalie for the Steelheads, and earning Michael McNiven his first win in the net since November 23rd of last year. While it was a slow start for the Nailers in the game, the fact that they stuck with it, even when going down 2-0, shows that they’re ready to compete in every game and not let themselves just sit back and allow the game to get even further out of hand.
Any time you have a situation where teams are playing three games in three days against one another, they generally have a good feeling for what the other is trying to do by that third game. Combine that with the exhaustion that is bound to set in with that much hockey, and that game can very easily turn into a Wild West shootout, and last Sunday’s game didn’t disappoint in that respect, with the two teams combining for four goals and 28 shots on net in the first period alone. Dead legs can make it a very tough game for players on defense trying to skate up and down the ice, but the biggest issue I saw was the Nailers penalty kill failing them pretty badly, allowing four Steelhead power play goals on only seven attempts, while Wheeling had nine power play attempts of their own and only capitalized on one of them. Numbers like that will lead to final scores like the 7-4 setback they experienced in this game.
Overall, despite the final outcomes from the weekend, I still think the Nailers had a good weekend. Yeah, like I said, you don’t want to lose two out of three games like that, but I think Wheeling proved they were able to hang with a team at the top like Idaho. The Steelheads were clearly the best team in the league last year, fell just short of winning the Kelly Cup, and appear to have a good shot of repeating that or more this year. But after last weekend’s games, the Steelheads (along with the rest of the league) will have to keep Wheeling in mind as they continue to work throughout the season and get even stronger than they are now.
The Nailers then went on the road for an early morning tilt with Toledo, a 6-5 shootout win over the Walleye during their education day game on Wednesday. What did Wheeling do in that game to make sure they came away with the two points?
If the Nailers were having a season like they did last year, they would’ve compounded the problems from the weekend series in their game Wednesday morning in Toledo. First off, when you’re used to playing at night, to then have to adjust your regular schedule to accommodate such an early game can be difficult. Add to that the presence of a rowdy crowd full of school children, and it could’ve definitely turned into Wheeling losing three of four, rather than them coming out of there with two huge standings points, although allowing a division opponent to earn the loser point despite Wheeling leading 5-3 going into the third period isn’t preferable.
The Nailers found a way to do what they do often, scoring the first goal of the game and doing it very early, with Raivis Ansons making it 1-0 just 3:37 in. Just over a minute later, Tanner Laderoute scored his fourth of the season, all coming in the last three games, to push Wheeling’s advantage further. Toledo managed to get two of their own before the end of the period to make it 2-2 entering the first break.
Wheeling came out and pushed hard to start the second again, with Bobby Hampton collecting his first of the year before the Nailers got two power play goals to give themselves a three-goal lead just past halfway through the second frame. At that point, you had to think they could maintain what they’re doing, shut down the Walleye, and bring home the victory, but Toledo managed to pick one back up before the end of the period and get two more in the third and final frame to force extra time.
After a lot of back-and-forth action in the overtime period that ultimately led to no scoring, the shootout began. Toledo, as the home team, was given the choice and elected to shoot first. After the first five shooters, neither team had scored, meaning the opportunity to put the game away fell on the stick of David Jankowski, who managed to push one in behind Jan Bednar to give the Nailers the big 6-5 win. For the game, the specialty teams once again came through for Wheeling, with their power play earning two goals on five opportunities, while the penalty kill went perfect on three tries for Toledo.
Obviously, it can be frustrating to allow Toledo back into the game when you have such a substantial lead more than halfway through the game. But the Walleye are a division opponent, a rival at that, so you have to expect them to push hard to get back into it. The fact that they had to score one with less than a minute to go in the game with their goalie pulled could’ve gotten into the Nailers collective head, but they didn’t fall apart in the overtime period. Earning two points, even if they give up the extra point, has to feel good in that situation.
The Nailers continue their road series this weekend, with games on Friday at Indy followed by a Sunday afternoon matchup with Fort Wayne. What do the Nailers need to do in those games to come home with a couple victories?
The game on Friday in Indy against the Fuel will be Wheeling’s first time seeing this year’s version of the team they had a losing record against last season. Indy comes into the matchup in last place in the division with a 2-5-1 record and losers in their last four games. Of all the games they’ve played so far this year, their worst by far was last Saturday, where they got beat by Cincinnati 6-2, and it didn’t even appear to be as close as that score suggests.
The big issue Indy has had this year is their penalty kill, which is only successful 70.4% of the time. While the Nailers PK unit isn’t much better at only 74.4% (after starting the season as strong as they did), that’s one area Wheeling will need to take advantage of to come out of there with a victory. If the Nailers are able to earn one (or hopefully more) while on the man advantage, while hopefully shutting down an Indy power play that has a 20.6% success rate, that can only bode well for them.
After that, Wheeling gets a second chance to beat the team that gave them their first defeat this season, a 7-3 setback on October 28 in the third game of the season. In that game, which was also out in Fort Wayne, the Komets were able to score the first four goals of the game, including a natural hat trick by Cameron Wright (who has only scored one other goal this season), and the Nailers never really appeared to be in the game. I’m not saying that payback should be the first thing in their mind to motivate them in this game, but getting the win back against them in their own building would feel really good.
Fort Wayne, even though they are third in the division right behind the Nailers, struggle even more than Indy does on their specialty groups. Their power play only has an 18.6% conversion rate, while their penalty kill is only successful 68.3% of the time. Both of those numbers are subpar at best, and won’t lead many teams to see much success over the course of a season. You can’t really claim it’s a small sample size anymore either, with both groups having over 40 opportunities, so this is really an area that Wheeling needs to take advantage of once again. While the majority of every game is played at even strength, most teams break even in those situations, so the advantages really lie with those specialty teams. If the Nailers can take advantage of how poor the Komets have been with those this season, they have a good chance to come home after the weekend with two big wins.
Including this past Wednesday’s game, the Nailers next 12 opponents will all be from their division. Considering the issues Wheeling had against divisional opponents last year, how do the Nailers reverse that trend for this year and what do they need to do over the next three weeks in these games to prove they’re a force to be reckoned with for the rest of the division?
The Nailers had an even longer streak last season around this time, playing 20 straight games against division rivals between November 9 and December 23. Last year’s version of the team went 10-9-1 over that stretch, which makes it very hard to stay competitive in the standings when you’re giving away that many points to teams you need to stay above in order to have a chance at the Kelly Cup playoffs.
While this year’s version isn’t quite as daunting, it could prove to be just as important on the grand scale of things for how this team will finish up. As I said last week, I like to break down the season into chunks of eight games at a time. The Nailers finished their first chunk with the end of the Idaho series, going 5-3 in the first segment of eight games. Winning records in each of those chunks goes a long way to keeping your team competitive in the standings.
They obviously started the new chunk well with a big win in Toledo (even with it being in shootout, getting those two points is helpful). That means their entire second chunk, as well as the first half of the third chunk, are made up of these divisional games, which should give you a feel of just how important these games already are. When you only have nine segments, having one and a half of them in a row made up of teams you will be fighting for playoff spots at the end of the season means you can’t ignore these early season matchups.
I know I’ve also mentioned this several times already this year, but specialty teams will take the Nailers a long way if they can stay successful. Watching that penalty kill number drop as much as it has isn’t very inspiring, and I really do think they need to find a way to get it back up closer to that 85% success rate. The power play, on the other hand, has managed to keep their work up, having their success rate up to almost 25%. If they can keep that above 20% for the season, that should definitely help them, as last year’s success rate was all the way down to 14.9% by the end of the year. When so many games are decided by which team performs better at the advantage, having your team be that successful at it is paramount to keeping your record up in that playoff range moving forward.
The Nailers have already welcomed the Idaho Steelheads, but they have some other series coming up this season against teams that don’t visit the Friendly City very often, namely Tulsa and Orlando. Does that make these series a little more special for the players and the fans since it’s something that isn’t seen as often as divisional opponents?
Despite the outcome last weekend, it was definitely really cool to see a team like Idaho come to the Friendly City. According to the Nailers director of media and community relations (and my good friend) DJ Abisalih, the Steelheads have only come to Wheeling one other time, a three-game series during the 2016-17 season. During that series, the Nailers managed to win the first game by a 4-1 final before dropping the other two games, 3-2 and 4-1, respectively. It’s interesting that they’ve only come to town twice, and both times have managed to take two of three from the home team.
When it comes to Tulsa, while they might have come to town a bit more recently than that, they have also only come twice, one game in the 2019-20 season, followed by a two-game set in the 2020-21 COVID year, so fans here in Wheeling haven’t seen much of the Oilers. The Nailers managed to win the single game in 2019 by a 6-4 score, then lost both games played in February 2021 by scores of 4-2 and 3-2. This can serve as the Nailers opportunity to get those wins back from the Oilers when they come for a two-game series in early December (December 9-10 to be exact).
As for Orlando, they’ve been to Wheeling plenty of times before, dating all the way back to the 2013-14 season, but they also haven’t been back since the 2020-21 COVID year. I can remember seeing them in person playing the Nailers, I believe back around the 2015-16 or possibly the 2016-17 season, so this one might be a little less special than the others, but it’s still nice to see teams that haven’t been here in years get a chance to come back to town. They will come back and renew hostilities with the Nailers February 2-4 this season.
For players on the team and fans alike, getting the chance to see new opponents is something that should stick out. These are teams you don’t get the chance to be familiar with like division opponents, and there’s no guarantee when you’ll have a chance to see something like that again. I personally look forward to getting my tickets for those upcoming series, and I hope everyone reading this gets a chance to come down to Wesbanco Arena to see these teams in person too.
