The Nailers earned one win Saturday against Tulsa between losses on Friday to the Oilers and Sunday to Reading. What happened in those games that kept Wheeling from earning some much-needed points?
It’s just like the old saying, “When it rains, it pours”. At least the Nailers were able to salvage two points out of the weekend, but when the team you’re chasing is going as well as they are (more on that shortly), you can’t afford to leave points on the table, which is exactly what Wheeling did in these games.
And now, the razor-thin margin the Nailers had to try to get back into the division race gets even slimmer, and you have to hope they can find a way to turn things around with just over a month left to play.
Friday’s game was unfortunately one of the least competitive games the Nailers played all year, getting just 17 shots on goal for the entire game, including only three measly shots in the third period when coming into the period trailing by two already and giving up an early goal. Twice in the game, Wheeling sent their power play, one of the league’s best, out on the ice to try to reverse fortunes, but neither time were they able to maintain much pressure or cause problems for Tulsa.
The one bright spot was the play of Sergei Murashov in goal, who, despite taking the loss, still made 30 saves in the contest, many in tough conditions. The Nailers left the ice knowing they needed to be more competitive the next night before the Oilers left town with four points.
As poorly as things went for Wheeling on Friday, there was nowhere to go but up from there. The Nailers finally found a way to put points on the board, when Eli Lieffers netted his first professional goal out of Nipissing University, and Wheeling was off and running. They continued to push and were rewarded as Mats Lindgren cashed in on the power play to give Wheeling a 2-0 lead with just over two minutes left in the first.
The second period was all Tulsa, as they outshot the Nailers 18-2 in the period, but Murashov, making back-to-back starts, stood tall and stopped all of them. The third went strong for the Oilers again, with them outshooting Wheeling 14-6 in that frame, but none of them found the net, and the Nailers came away with the shutout victory.
Sunday’s game saw a Reading team come into town off of two straight victories over the Komets in Ft. Wayne. The Royals outshot Wheeling in the first period 11-3 and skated away with a 2-0 advantage on the scoreboard thanks to their strong play. The Nailers bounced back in the second, this time getting an 18-5 shot advantage in the period, but only one of those went in as Matt Quercia managed to find the back of the net with just under three minutes remaining. Reading cashed in early in the third, which made Wheeling push hard again.
The power play struck for the Nailers once more as David Jankowski scored just over seven minutes into the final frame with the man advantage. Unfortunately, it wasn’t enough, as Reading managed to hold strong, and Wheeling came out of the weekend with just the two standings points to their name.
The Nailers continue their homestand this weekend with two games against Adirondack followed by a Sunday showdown with Maine. What does Wheeling need to do to return to their winning ways?
Here’s to hoping that this is exactly what the Nailers needed with how rough the month of February has been. Wheeling has only managed to go 3-7-0 this month, with one game left in February on Friday, and are 1-5-0 in their last six contests. This month will actually be the first month the Nailers have had a losing record, after going 2-2-0 in October, 10-1-1 in November, 10-2-0 in December, and 6-5-1 in January.
Not exactly the best time to have the worst month of your season, with the division title essentially on the line at this point.
Luckily (or perhaps unluckily, considering the opponent), Adirondack comes to town for two games after going 1-5-1 over their seven games against Trois-Rivières over the last two weeks. The Thunder come to town with the least number of points in the entire Eastern Conference, and only ahead of Allen for the lowest point total in the entire league. They have one of the worst goal differentials in the league at -49, but the biggest difference is in the first period, where they are getting outscored 64-29 (-35).
If the Nailers can jump on them early and hold the lead, they can hopefully come away with a couple much-needed victories.
Then on Sunday, Wheeling welcomes Maine to town, a team the Nailers are 1-1-0 against this season, although they haven’t played one another since the first series of the season back on October 18-19. Things have not gone well since then for the Mariners, as they currently sit just ahead of Adirondack in the division standings and don’t appear headed for postseason play. Maine has had a tough time on the road this season, earning an 8-15-2 record away from home and being outscored 94-59 (-35).
The Mariners are another team with a tough goal difference at -52 overall, but their struggle period is the third, where they’re being outscored 66-29 (-37). The Nailers need to at least keep the game close if not be in the lead going into the third but then take advantage of just how bad Maine is coming down the stretch in games and ice the game to their advantage.
The Nailers now find themselves 11 points behind Trois-Rivières. What can Wheeling do to get back into the race this late?
Unfortunately, the opponent Adirondack had in those last seven games was the Lions, who managed to go 6-1-0 against the Thunder and put a significant amount of space between them and Wheeling. Trois-Rivières will now play three this weekend against Norfolk (whom we shall discuss more about shortly), so they at least have some tough competition as we now get teams that should be easier, with how their seasons have gone so far.
But with only 22 games left in the regular season for both teams, the advantage is very clearly in favor of the Lions. If Wheeling were able to find a way to win out (which would be an almost impossible win streak, but you never know), those 44 points would give them 108 points for the season. Four of their remaining games are between these two teams, so if those get added as losses for Trois-Rivières (since Wheeling is assumed to have won out), then they need 34 points in those remaining 18 games to clinch the division.
We know that won’t happen though, so let’s look a little more realistic. Wheeling has a points percentage for the season of 0.640. If you multiply that out for the remaining games, that gives the Nailers an additional 28 points this season, for a total of 92 points at the end of the regular season. That means the Lions only need to get to 93 in that case, which means they need 18 more points to get there.
That would be a 0.409-point percentage the rest of the way, when they have a 0.750-point percentage to this point. I’m not saying this is impossible, but the deck is very clearly stacked against Wheeling getting back into the division championship race thanks to their subpar February, unfortunately.
If the Nailers can’t get back into the race for the division lead, what would it take for them to keep Norfolk behind them to at least maintain home ice in the first round?
Compared to the situation in the previous question, Wheeling is currently in the driver’s seat when it comes to at least staying in second place and getting home ice for the first round of the playoffs. If Trois-Rivières takes care of business this weekend, despite it hurting Wheeling’s chances in the division race, it would go a long way to helping them stay ahead of the Admirals for second place.
Using the same data I calculated for Wheeling in the previous question (the realistic portion, not the pie-in-the-sky undefeated streak to end the year portion), that would mean Norfolk has to find a way to get to 93 points themselves to jump over the Nailers for second place. With their current 61 points, they would need to find a way to get 32 more points in 22 games left.
That would equate out to a 0.727-point percentage the rest of the way, when they currently have a 0.610-point percentage thus far. I’m not saying it’s not possible for that to happen either. In fact, that has a better chance of happening than the Lions falling flat on their face at the end and falling behind the Nailers. But it would take quite an effort on the part of Norfolk, and I just don’t see it happening.
That being said, both situations come down to Wheeling performing how they need to perform and earn points. If they can’t find ways to keep their point percentage at a certain level to maintain their lead (or possibly catch up on the team ahead of them), then it will all be a moot point.
Winning will go a long way for the Nailers over the final month and a half of the season, so here’s to hoping they’re ready for what lies ahead and can step up to the challenge to be able to stay home.
Saturday night’s game against Adirondack will be the Nailers’ Battle Royale Night. What is the team doing for this promotion?
As a video game player myself who spent much of his youth in local arcades, I will always sign on for a team to combine two of my loves (video games and hockey). I can still remember my parents taking me to the Fort Steuben Mall over in Steubenville, dropping me off at the arcade with $10 (which, let’s be honest, was a lot of money at the time), and going in to play every game I could while they went about their business in the rest of the mall.
I know, I know, but it was a different time, and that was completely normal.
So, when I heard they were setting up an arcade in the front lobby of WesBanco Arena for this game, I got excited. I still remember how much fun it was going up to a game cabinet, dropping in my coins, and grabbing the joystick and playing.
It’s something I feel like the younger generation doesn’t understand, with the presence of home gaming systems and the like. The Nailers will also be giving away a “Battle Royale” themed puck to fans as they come in the arena and are offering a “gamer” food and drink bundle.
I’m really looking forward to seeing how this one plays out, and I hope to see you all at the rink too.
