The Nailers couldn’t keep the winning streak going, losing Friday and Sunday sandwiched around a road win in Toledo on Saturday. What did you see from Wheeling in these games?
Well, as the old adage says, you can’t win them all. The good news is that Norfolk, the other team at the top of the North Division, lost two of three last weekend to Trois-Rivières also, so we stayed tied with them points-wise.
The other good news is that these losses occurred against teams from a different division than the Nailers are in now, so while you never want to lose two of three in a weekend (especially when one of those losses was to Toledo), it doesn’t hurt quite as bad as it would have it been against divisional opponents.
Friday’s game at Wesbanco Arena was all around bad for the Nailers as Toledo came out swinging and potted the first score of the game just under four minutes in. One of the only real bright spots of the game for Wheeling was the team managing to get 14 shots on net in the second period, including a few good scoring chances. But Jan Bednar was solid in net all night for the Walleye, making 25 saves in the game. The third period went a little off the rails for Wheeling, as Toledo managed to light the lamp three more times in the period to earn the 4-0 shutout and end the winning streak officially at 13.
Saturday’s game provided not just a change in scenery, but a change in script for the Nailers, as well, as they went to Toledo to face the Walleye again. Wheeling managed to score their first of the game as quickly as Toledo did the night before, just under four minutes in thanks to Jack Beck. The Nailers managed to get two more early in the second from Sam Houde just 35 seconds in followed by a power play marker from Adam Calvert before the Walleye managed to stop the bleeding just past halfway through the period.
Wheeling got one more in the period thanks to the second of the night from Houde, and each team lit the lamp once in the third, with Wheeling’s marker being an empty netter from David Jankowski, and the Nailers left town with the 5-2 victory.
It would be understandable, after playing two games already on the weekend as well as the travel between cities, if the Nailers came out a little flat on Sunday. That wasn’t the case however, as Wheeling managed to fire 37 shots on net in Kalamazoo, including 16 in the third period alone. The problem is goaltender Ty Young of the K-Wings was the best player on the ice that night, making 36 saves in the game.
While everyone in Wheeling was hoping the Nailers could start a new streak shortly after losing their previous one, it wasn’t to be, as Peter Laviolette was the only player in a Wheeling jersey to manage to score one with just over nine minutes remaining in the game, and Kalamazoo came away with the 2-1 win.
The Nailers come out of the holiday break with a Friday trip to Cincinnati followed by Saturday and Sunday home games against Iowa. What can the team do to bounce back after last weekend’s performance?
While it stinks to know the lengthy streak the Nailers were on has come to an end, there’s no time like the present to start another one. Looking at the division standings (which I’ll cover more in-depth shortly), it appears the Nailers will need to get back on the winning track quickly to keep their place in the standings. And there’s no reason to think they can’t do just that with games against the Cyclones and Heartlanders this weekend.
Wheeling begins the weekend with a trip to Cincy to face the worst team (record-wise) in the ECHL. The Cyclones come in with a 5-16-4 record (3-5-3 at home), and a -32-goal differential. Cincinnati has managed to go 2-4-1 since these two teams last met on December 7, and Wheeling currently has a 4-0-0 record against the Cyclones so far this year. Cincy’s power play at home is only 2-for-29, for a 6.9% success rate, but their penalty kill group is a little better at home, sitting in seventh in the league. If Wheeling is able to take advantage of their power plays and push play like they like to, there’s no reason the Nailers can’t come home with the victory.
From there, the Nailers come back home for their first meetings this year with Iowa. The Heartlanders currently sit in second place in the Central Division, just four points behind Toledo for first, which is a far cry from where they’ve been in recent years. Iowa is the second most penalized team in the league this season, with 462 penalty minutes through 26 games played, for an average of 17.77 minutes per game, while Wheeling sits fifth from the bottom at just 9.46 minutes per game. Iowa’s penalty kill group on the road this season sits in 25th place (out of 29) in the league with a 75.8% success rate.
So, with the number of penalties the Heartlanders normally take, combined with how poorly their shorthanded group works on the road, if Wheeling is able to take advantage of that, they could skate away with a couple more wins.
As we approach the end of the calendar year, the Nailers still sit in a tie for first place in the division. What does Wheeling need to do to stay there as we get through 2025?
You know, it’s a bit sad that the Nailers have done as well as they have to this point in the season and yet still sit in tie (points-wise) in the division standings. But that just goes to show you the level of talent in the league. Right now, Wheeling and Norfolk both sit with 37 standings points (although the Admirals have played two more games than the Nailers have), while Trois-Rivières is just two points back with 35 points and one game in hand on Wheeling. From there, it’s a big jump down to Adirondack and Worcester, both sitting with 23 points through 23 and 28 games played, respectively.
While it may be a little bit simplistic, the best thing that Wheeling can do is just keep winning. The Nailers only have two games this year against Norfolk (coming up right at the beginning of January on the road), so they can’t count on having a chance to take advantage of four-point swings being available in games between them.
In order to continue seeing success, I think the Nailers have to continue to be dominant on the special teams side. Their power play is fifth best in the league overall, with a 21.6% success rate, while the penalty kill group is third best, at an 87.3% success rate. I know that’s been a big area of focus for Coach Derek Army this year, improving on both sides of the special teams counter, and the team responded well.
If they can keep that up while playing the fast, tight forechecking brand of hockey the Nailers are known for, I believe they have a chance to do something special the rest of the way.
The back half of the season has a lot of games against divisional opponents, with 22 of their remaining 45 games (after this weekend) against divisional foes. How important is it that Wheeling comes out hot against these teams?
Remember how I said there was a bit of a gap between third and fourth place in the division in the previous question? The important part about the division games remaining is the split of how many of those are against the teams up near Wheeling (Norfolk and Trois-Rivières) against the rest of the teams (Adirondack, Worcester, Reading, and Maine).
As I said before, the Nailers will only see the Admirals twice this season, with both of those games coming up very soon. As for the Lions, the Nailers will only see them four more times the rest of the way, with three of those being the final series of the season on the road in April, by which time things could already be decided.
That means 16 of those remaining 22 division games come against teams who are at least 14 points behind the Nailers in the standings already. However, of their remaining games, Norfolk and Trois-Rivières have 21 and 35, respectively, left against those four teams. The Admirals and Lions also have seven games remaining against each other left on the schedule.
With the number of games the other teams still play within the division, it becomes even more important that Wheeling take advantage of the ones they have against the lower opponents. While it would be nice to have more games against North Division opponents, we have to play the schedule we are given, and we have to have success in the games we have in order to maintain our spot within the standings.
With the New Year’s holiday coming up next week, what is your resolution for 2025, and what do you hope the Nailers make theirs for the coming calendar change?
As I’ve said before in this space, I’m not a big fan of holidays. Maybe that shouldn’t carry over to New Year’s, but it does for me. Years ago, I made a resolution to not make resolutions again, and so far since then, it’s worked out for me, and I haven’t made any. But I suppose for the purposes of this article, I can try to come up with something.
I resolve to do what I can to make this weekly article as interesting as I possibly can for all of you.
I will do my best to hear from you, the reader, to know what you’re looking for and try to meet your expectations. I would like to engage with the fans a little more in regard to what I’m writing, so if you ever see me out and about, or down at the arena, please don’t hesitate to talk to me and give me ideas. I’d be happy to discuss them with you.
As for the Nailers, I think their resolution has to be to continue to play the Nailers way.
Continue to make the game hard for your opponent. Continue to be ready in case you’re the next man up, whether at this level or you get the call to move up. In that same vein, be ready if your name gets called because someone moved and you’re now in the lineup. I believe they will continue to work hard and follow the teachings of Coach Army, and if they can do that, there’s no question in my mind they will be successful.
