With two big home games coming up this weekend (Fort Wayne followed by Toledo), what do you think the Nailers need from these two games as the calendar hits December?
Looking at the standings, both teams currently sit behind Wheeling, with Fort Wayne being one point behind and Toledo an additional two points below that, but both of those teams have a game in hand. The Nailers are currently 3-3 in road games, but have lost the last two, both in quite convincing fashion (a 6-1 defeat at the hands of Indy followed by a 4-1 loss in Kalamazoo).
I think the Nailers need to prove they can go on the road and play a complete game. There will be moments where things can get tough, bad penalties may hit, even giving up a goal or two. I think it’s important they remain competitive when that happens and not let a close game get away from them in short order. Show that you know what it takes to go on the road and win.
Conversely, since they have a .500 record on the road, that means they’re currently sitting one game under .500 at home at 4-5. They need to make this a tough place to come play a game. Having a good crowd in the building helps with that too. I’d like to see the arena get a good crowd for both weekend games and show the team some support. Knowing how important these games can be when playoff seeding is on the line in a couple months should also encourage the guys to push harder. Keeping these guys behind them in the standings is probably the most important thing to have happen this weekend.
With the improvements the team has made in both the power play and penalty kill, what is the biggest area the team now needs help in?
While both specialty teams have definitely improved from the beginning of the year, the power play is still only holding out at a 15.8% clip this season, so there is still some room for improvement there. The best teams in the league are operating closer to a 20% success rate, with Idaho up closer to 25%, so continuing to improve there should really be paramount. When you have the extra player on the ice, use that to your advantage and find a way to break through.
Aside from that, I think goal scoring as a whole needs to be made a priority. The leading scorer on the team for this season is Sean Josling, and he only has 5 goals so far. The Nailers as a team have scored 35 goals total through 15 games, which breaks out to 2.33 goals per game, and they’ve had 5 games where they’ve been held to 1 goal or less. Sometimes it really is something as simple as putting more pucks in the net. Scoring goals early in games and putting the other team on their heels really would help a lot, but just finding ways to keep pressure and scoring more is very important as this team continues to grow.
When looking at the current stats the team and players have been able to put up, what do you think is the biggest indicator for how things have gone so far and what can be done to improve those?
I really enjoy looking at stats to see if they give any sort of indication for how things are going that might be missed by just watching the on-ice product. One statistic that a lot of people like to overlook but I think tells a good story is plus/minus. For anyone who doesn’t know, plus/minus shows basically how well your team is doing with you on the ice when at even strength with the other team. You get a plus 1 if on the ice for a goal for your team, and a minus 1 if on the ice for a goal by the other team. It basically shows if you’re outperforming the guys you’re being paired up against the most.
The issue I’m seeing is that there are currently only three players who have played 10 or more games with a positive plus/minus stat, and two more that currently sit at a plus/minus of zero. This means that a lot of the guys aren’t outperforming their opponents at even strength. It becomes increasingly difficult to have success in hockey if you consistently get beaten at 5 on 5. This relates back to the scoring goals answer from the previous question, but sometimes it really is as simple as that. Scoring more goals than the other guys. Which is something this team hasn’t been able to do consistently. You spend the majority of every game at even strength, so getting stronger in those situations would bode well for this team moving forward.
Considering the playoff format for the ECHL (top four teams by division play, with 1 versus 4 and 2 versus 3 in the first round), what do you think the Nailers should hope for the rest of the way for their optimal first-round opponent?
As of right now, the Nailers sit in the fourth and final playoff spot in the Central Division, with Indy, Cincinnati, and Kalamazoo sitting ahead of them in that order. While Indy does currently sit in first place, Cincinnati has actually played 4 less games than they have and own the third best points percentage in the entire league. Obviously, if you’re lucky enough to make the playoffs at all, the level of competition will increase significantly. You can’t bank on the games you have left against the Norfolk’s and the Iowa’s of the league anymore.
Wheeling currently owns a 1-1 record against Indy (winners at home while losing on the road), a 0-1 record against Cincinnati (with them beating the Nailers in their own building with a shutout), and a 1-1 record against Kalamazoo (with each team winning their own home game, just like with Indy). The Nailers will also have a chance to play 5 more games with Indy, 7 more against Cincinnati, and 5 against Kalamazoo, so the opportunity exists to stay relevant for higher positions in the division. The Nailers could also benefit from having 17 of their final 32 games this year being against the two teams with the worst records in the league so far this year in Norfolk and Iowa.
Seeing as how the Nailers actually have a better road record this season than at home, I don’t know if it really matters to make sure they clinch home ice, although it’s definitely a perk if you can. Being able to sleep in your own bed and stick to a routine you’re used to when at home is definitely a benefit to finishing in the top two, and there’s a chance they could work their way there. If I were Coach Army and the Nailers, I would probably just worry about that and let the chips fall as they may in terms of opponent, but as a fan, I would like to see them face the toughest team up front and get them over with, so I’d like to see them somehow end up in a series against Cincinnati right away.
If you could only choose one area to sit in at Wesbanco Arena for every game you go to the rest of the way, where would you like to be?
I’ve sat in just about every section of that arena, and I really don’t think there’s a bad seat to be had. Sitting closer to the action gives you a better feel for what’s happening on the ice, while sitting a little higher up allows you to see the full picture a little better. I’ve personally always been a big fan of sitting higher up, and behind one of the goals.
I feel like it helps me to see what the players are seeing, looking for breakout passes, finding holes in the zones, and just seeing the flow as the game moves. Personally, that would be my choice, but for my money, just having the opportunity to watch a hockey game in person is worth sitting any available seat in the building.
