The Nailers extended their win streak to 13 with back-to-back 4-1 victories over the Reading Royals last weekend. How did Wheeling manage to do it?
Any time a team goes on a streak like the Nailers have, the concern is that they’ll lose focus. That they’ll become complacent. That they’ll expect things to continue as they have and not continue to outhustle and outwork the other team to keep things going. There are plenty of examples in recent hockey history suggesting that teams who have extended periods of success can struggle to maintain it as long as Wheeling has already done.
But I don’t get that sense from this team. I don’t believe that Coach Derek Army will allow them to rest on their laurels. I don’t see a group of guys who are happy with what they’ve done, or believe the job is done. These guys continue to come out and work hard, continue to grind and play a 200-foot game, and are willing to fill their role on the team to make sure they are successful. And successful they have been to this point in the year.
Friday’s game started off very well for Reading, with the home team controlling play early and netting a goal under two minutes into the contest. Despite that, Wheeling continued to work, pressed hard, and it worked out to the tune of three goals for the Nailers before the period ended from Jagger Joshua and twice from Matty De St.
Phalle to give Wheeling a two-goal advantage after one. The second period was a little slower developing, with each team getting chances with the man advantage but not taking advantage, before Kyle Jackson finally broke through for the fourth goal of the game for Wheeling with just over three minutes left in the period. Both teams had their chances in the third period, as each club fired 11 shots on goal, but Taylor Gauthier made several good saves, and Wheeling skated away with their record-tying 12th consecutive victory.
The first period of Saturday’s game went decisively towards the Royals, with them doubling up the Nailers on the shot clock at 10-5. But Sergei Murashov was able to turn them all away and keep the score knotted into the second. Finally, with just under seven minutes left in the middle frame, Kyle Jackson scored his second of the weekend to break the ice, and four minutes later Matty De St. Phalle got one for himself to push Wheeling out to the 2-0 lead.
Reading was able to pocket one of their own before the horn and trail by one heading to the third. In the third, Louie Roehl was able to cash in just 25 seconds into the period, restoring the two-goal Nailer advantage, then less than three minutes later, on a power play, Jordan Martel shelved one to extend the advantage to 4-1, which would hold to the final horn.
The Nailers face a tall task this weekend to keep the streak alive, with a home-and-home scheduled with Toledo on Friday in Wheeling then Saturday in Toledo, followed by a game at Kalamazoo on Sunday. What does Wheeling need to do to keep it going?
Well, the best way to prove that this thing is for real and can be continued is by beating the best team in the other conference (hopefully) twice this weekend. Toledo comes into the weekend tied with Wheeling at 35 standing points (albeit with four more games played than the Nailers), and they just continue to be as strong as they have been in years past when these two teams shared a division. The last regulation loss the Nailers suffered was on the ice in Toledo back on November 1, and since then they’ve faced each other one other time, a 4-1 Wheeling victory at Wesbanco Arena on November 27.
That loss in Toledo is the only loss the Nailers have suffered this year against a team from the Central Division, currently holding a record of 11-1 in games against their former division.
The Walleye are led yet again by former Nailer Brandon Hawkins, who comes into the weekend with 28 points, just four short of the league lead. Of those 28 points, eight have been scored on the power play in the form of three goals and five assists. He also leads the ECHL in shots on goal with 127, 17 more than the second-place player. Quite often, Toledo goes as Hawkins goes, so if the Nailers are able to come out and play tough on him, try to limit his chances and keep the puck off his stick (and hopefully 200 feet away from their own net), Wheeling can see success against this team.
Then on Sunday, Wheeling finishes their weekend with a trip to Kalamazoo to face the K-Wings, a team they’ve only played once this year, a 4-2 Nailer victory back on December 6. Kalamazoo is having a rough go of it this year, sitting in sixth place in the Central Division with an 8-12-1 record thus far. They have the absolute worst power play at home in the league, converting just once in 27 attempts for a 3.7% success rate, and their home penalty kill is middle of the pack at 82.1% success. Conversely, the Wheeling road power play and penalty kill both sit in sixth in the league at 25.0% success on the man advantage and 89.7% success shorthanded. If Wheeling can take advantage of how much better their specialty teams are than the K-Wings, the Nailers can have a successful weekend all the way through.
The Nailers’ 13-game win streak, as well as 16 games in a row earning at least one point, set two new franchise records. Where do things go from here for the boys in black and yellow?
I hate to look too far ahead, especially with how difficult the games this weekend could turn out to be. But if Wheeling is able to hold strong and keep both streaks going beyond these three games, they could realistically take it into the new year. Next weekend sees one road game, Friday at Cincinnati, who is currently in last place in the entire league with a 4-15-3 record (although that could always change a bit with their games this weekend).
Then the Nailers welcome Iowa to town for two games on Saturday and Sunday that weekend. While the Heartlanders are better record-wise and sit in third in the Central Division, their road record is much more mediocre than their home record. Wheeling, at 9-0-1, are the last team in the league to have not lost a game in regulation at home. If they can continue it beyond that, their last one before the ball drops is on December 31 at home against Reading, a team Wheeling currently has a 4-1 record against this year. It’ll be very interesting to see if the Nailers can find a way to have a full month without a regulation loss, after suffering only one in November, and keep playing their game. If they do that, there’s no telling where this rocket ship lands.
Looking through the statistics so far this season for the Nailers, is there anything that jumps off the page at you that explains why they’re off to such a hot start?
I’ve already mentioned one that I think is the most interesting, with Wheeling having an 11-1 record against teams from the Central Division, a record they couldn’t come close to when they were in that division themselves. These teams have historically been very tough for the Nailers, so to see them get off to such a hot start in these games is very heartening. In addition to that, Wheeling’s specialty teams both sit in the top five in the league at the same time, with the power play group at fourth overall in the ECHL with a 22.7% success rate, while the penalty kill group sits fifth at an 86.6% success rate. I’ve been saying for years now that getting those groups near those numbers would lead to success for the team overall, and I feel like this just proves that playing well in those situations can really turn the tide in certain games.
But I think the thing that really stands out to me the most is the goal differential by period for the Nailers so far this year. Wheeling is currently outscoring opponents in all three periods, but the margins at which they are doing so (and which periods) is amazing. The Nailers are +10 in the first period (23 goals to 13 goals against), while that number dips a little to +7 in the second period (26 goals for to 19 goals against). But in the third period, Wheeling absolutely kicks it up to another gear. When most teams are slowing down after already playing 40 minutes of hockey, the Nailers experience their highest scoring period, netting 31 goals in the third period this season while only allowing 11 against for a +20-goal differential in the final period.
I feel like that’s a testament to how much work Coach Derek Army puts into getting these guys ready every game, and how much they have bought in and do that work to be ready. Only one other team has a +20-goal differential in the third period this year (Florida, at 29 goals for to 9 goals against), and they’re the other team at the top of the ECHL standings with the Nailers, so that’s a good sign for success for a team in the long run for this season.
After this weekend’s slate of games, the Nailers will officially be a third of the way through the 2024-25 season. What do you think of their start so far and where do you see this thing going?
I have to say, it’s hard to see much negative when your team is off to as strong of a start as the Nailers have enjoyed to this point. A 13-game winning streak. A 16-game points streak. Sitting tied (points-wise) for first place in the division with a Norfolk team that has played two more games this season than Wheeling has. An offense that has lit up scoresheets, with 21 different players all hitting the back of the net this year so far, seven players with double-digit points on the season, and two goalies who are playing lights-out hockey, one of whom was the league goaltender of the year last season, while the other is new to hockey in North America and is still learning how to play on the smaller sheet of ice.
But that’s where the complacency I spoke of earlier comes in. Guys stop thinking they have to work hard to keep winning games. They expect to see this level of success continue no matter what they do. I don’t believe that will happen with this squad, because Coach Army won’t let it, but it can. Also, seeing as this is a developmental league, the worry of call-ups is always out there too. The best players at this level often get a chance to show what they can do at the A (or even make it up to the big league), and that leaves your team scrambling to fill holes.
That being said, I feel like this team has shown thus far what they’re capable of doing and believe they can continue to play this well moving forward, with or without the extended winning streak. The Nailers have a strong roster, including depth pieces, and the support of their parent clubs to keep good players here.
Looking forward, I’m a bit sad that, once the calendar flips to 2025, the Nailers only have five home games in the month of January (against seven road games). I’d love the chance to see them at home more but look forward to catching them in action every chance I get when they’re at Wesbanco Arena. I advise all of you to look at the upcoming schedule and find a chance to get to the arena to catch this club and enjoy how well they’re playing in person. I’ll see you all at the rink.
