The Nailers took two of three from Trois-Rivières last weekend to end the regular season, winning Friday and Saturday before losing on Sunday. What did Wheeling do well in these games to finish the season the way they did?
Well, that’s a nice way to end a season; by beating the team you have a good chance of facing in the second round. Trois-Rivières didn’t really have anything to play for in these games, as they had already clinched the division and the first seed, but they were still trying to keep Wheeling from getting the two seed, and they weren’t able to do that. And now Wheeling knows that, if they do end up running into the Lions again, they went 3-2-1 against them in the regular season and will try to carry that momentum into any future matchups.
Friday’s game started very strong for the Nailers, as they had a number of high-quality scoring chances but were unable to cash in. The only goal in the first period was scored by Trois-Rivières, and the game went to the second period with Wheeling down by a goal. The second period was even stronger for the Nailers, as they outshot the Lions 11-4 in the frame and did manage to score just over seven minutes in, as Matthew Quercia capitalized on a power play opportunity.
The game then went to the third tied 1-1, but that was broken just 22 seconds in when Trois-Rivières managed to get their lead back, but that lasted less than three minutes before Matt Koopman scored a shorthanded goal to tie it again. From there, Wheeling took over with another goal five minutes later by Jordan Martel, followed by a second power play tally by Quercia and then an empty net goal late by Cole Tymkin sent Wheeling away with the victory.
Saturday’s game started off much slower, with the two teams combining for 10 total shots on goal in the period. Wheeling got on the board first just over eight minutes in, as Lars Rodne opened the scoring for the Nailers.
However, with just two seconds left on the clock in the period, the Lions were able to squeak one past Jaxon Castor and tie the game. The second period opened up a little more, and both teams had chances, but the only one that found the back of the net was a shot by Jordan Martel to give Wheeling the 2-1 edge.
That score held until late in the third period when Trois-Rivières pulled their goaltender and Matt Koopman managed to hit the empty net and bring home the 3-1 win for the Nailers and allow them to clinch second place in the North Division.
Sunday’s game turned out to be a little retribution for the Lions, as they managed to jump on the Nailers early, scoring the first goal of the game just over five minutes in. Wheeling managed to keep the one-goal difference into the second, when Trois-Rivières scored their first of three power play goals in the game to extend their lead before Cole Tymkin managed to cut the lead back to one, which held until the third period.
In the third, the Lions were able to score three more goals, all in the second half of the period, and came away with a 5-1 victory in the final game of the regular season for both squads.
Their two victories last weekend combined with the Admirals losing both of their games to South Carolina helped the Nailers clinch second place in the North Division. What sort of advantage could home ice end up being for Wheeling, who can look forward to playing up to five games at home in a row now?
I will say, while I am glad the Nailers were able to earn the home ice advantage in the first round, it may not be as much of an advantage as we were hoping. Having the first two games on the road, where the Nailers have been much weaker compared to when they are playing at WesBanco Arena, isn’t optimal, especially if Norfolk is able to take advantage and earn at least one victory on their ice.
The good news is, as long as Wheeling is able to earn a split there, having the rest of the series at home has to give the Nailers the edge.
The numbers on home ice for the Nailers speak for themselves, owning a 24-10-1-1 record in games played in the Friendly City, as well as a +28-goal differential. Their power play on home ice is tied with Bloomington for third best in the entire league at a 22.8% success rate, while the penalty kill sits just outside the top 10 on home ice at 11th at an 82.1% success rate.
The Nailers are especially good at home when defending the lead, earning a 15-1-0 record when leading after one period, and 17-1-0 record when leading after two. With these two teams not meeting in Wheeling during the regular season this year, plus the added possibility of up to five games in a row here between the two teams, maybe the Admirals will come in unprepared for what they’ll face here and won’t be able to keep up with the energy we bring the arena each night.
Now that the dust has settled and the matchup is officially set, can you give me a “tale of the tape” between the Nailers and Admirals, and show where Wheeling might just have the advantage between these two squads?
The problem with everything I wrote above is, for just how well the Nailers have done at home this year, the Admirals have done just as well when away from the Norfolk Scope. Their record away from home this year is 21-10-4-1 (both teams own an identical 19-15-2 record in their opposite situation, so the only difference between these teams that gave Wheeling home ice was three Nailer wins being turned into overtime losses by Norfolk) with a +20-goal differential.
Both teams earned 28 victories this season when scoring first in their games, as well as more than 30 victories each when leading after two periods of play, so getting an early lead and holding that lead is very important to both teams.
The Admirals tied for fourth in the ECHL in goals per game overall at 3.49, while Wheeling was tied for seventh in the league in goals against per game overall, allowing 2.69 per. One area that could come into play in this series as an advantage for the Nailers is that Norfolk earns the sixth most penalty minutes per game in the league at 14.36 (Wheeling is not far behind in 11th at 13.35 minutes per game).
The Nailer power play is seventh overall in the league at 21.5%, but on home ice (where the majority of the games will most likely be played), it jumps up to fourth in the league at 22.8%. Conversely, the Admiral penalty kill is tenth overall at an 82.0% success rate, although the number does jump up slightly on the road to 82.2%.
For Wheeling to see success in this series, I think they’re going to need to take advantage of their opportunities with the extra skater.
The ECHL announced the playoff rosters for every team on Tuesday before the playoffs officially get underway on Wednesday. Were there any surprises on the roster submitted by the Nailers?
Boy, talk about a bit of a surprise when I saw that Sergei Murashov was going to make his way back down from Wilkes-Barre/Scranton to partake in the Kelly Cup playoffs with the Nailers.
Murashov’s numbers in Wheeling were extremely impressive for a young man who just turned 21 back on April 1. He earned a 17-7-1 record with a 2.40 goals-against average and 0.922 save percentage in ECHL action, in addition to a 12-3-0 record up in the AHL with a 2.64 goals-against average and 0.913 save percentage.
I see a future where this young man is dressing for the big squad up in Pittsburgh, not too far from now, so getting to see him in his first playoff action here in Wheeling is very exciting.
Aside from that, there weren’t a lot of surprises on the official playoff roster. I was happy to see the players that were listed as playoff eligible, including Matty De St. Phalle, Atley Calvert, Gabe Klassen, and Chris Ortiz, as they could find their way back here much like Murashov did once certain NHL teams see their seasons end and they send players back to the AHL to continue to play, which pushes players back down to our level. It would be nice to have a full complement of players available, but the guys who are here have done everything it took to get the Nailers back to the playoffs for the second year in a row, so I have full confidence in this roster to continue to perform.
Looking ahead, the Nailers have a long, arduous road ahead of them if they want to win the Kelly Cup for the first time since moving to Wheeling. What will it take for the Nailers to go all the way and hoist the trophy this time?
The playoffs in hockey, no matter the level, are always a war of attrition. The further you go, the better teams you play against, and the more your team ends up getting banged up. And hockey players are very well known for not admitting when they are hurting, instead going to war and dealing with whatever maladies they encounter in their own way, as long as they aren’t hurting the team.
Wheeling’s path to a championship does not appear to be easy. They will have to take on a strong Norfolk team that lines up very well with them statistically.
If they get through that series, they will most likely see a Trois-Rivières team that had a very strong year from start to finish and are one of the better defensive teams in the entire league.
From there, the winner from the North Division will get the team from the South Division (I would expect either South Carolina or Florida, as they were the top two teams in the league standings this year with 109 and 106 points, respectively) for the chance to compete for the championship against the winner from the Western Conference.
It’s not easy. It’s not quick. You can no longer take advantage of games against the Adirondack’s or the Cincinnati’s of the world. You are going to get your opponent’s best night in and night out the rest of the way, so if you don’t do the same, you won’t be playing in it for long.
But for this Wheeling Nailers team, from what I’ve seen so far this season, the end goal should absolutely be bringing home that trophy.
They have the skill, they have the talent, and they have the fans here in Wheeling salivating for a chance to finally win the championship. So, let’s see what happens in these first couple of games, and then let’s pack WesBanco Arena to show this team just how badly we want it here.
I’ll see you at the rink for game three.
