Talk about a roller coaster ride of a season. After dropping two of three to Iowa followed by winning two of three against Norfolk, the Nailers have lost five in a row, four of those by one goal. What do the Nailers need to do to turn this around?
Whew. Can someone stop this ride, because I’m starting to get whiplash from all of the ups and downs recently. Coming out of a big weekend matchup with Norfolk that saw the Nailers get right back into contention, Wheeling went on the road for a big weekend away against three divisional opponents who are currently ahead of them in the standings, and they simply couldn’t get it done.
The big story of the Indy game was the specialty teams, with Wheeling going one for six with the man advantage, while the Fuel managed to be two for five, including the game-winner with the extra skater. Percentages like that won’t win you many games. You have to find a way to take advantage of it at a better clip than the Nailers have managed to when you’re a man up, while having your penalty kill be only 60% will generally be a recipe for disaster, and it was that night.
The next night, against Ft. Wayne, the team the Nailers were desperately trying to catch up to in the standings. Wheeling actually enjoyed a 3-2 lead through the second period, and Wheeling this season was 13-2-3 on the season going into this game when in that situation. All they had to do was find a way to play a smart period of hockey, especially on the road. Work hard in your defensive zone, shut down the other team as best you can, get pucks deep in their zone as far from your own net when you have it, take smart chances.
Instead, the Nailers managed to give up a goal only 25 seconds into the third to tie the game, then the game-winner with only 3:52 left on the clock in a huge 4-3 loss to the Komets. When facing the team you’re trying to overtake, every chance matters, especially when you absolutely have to keep them from earning points as much as you can, and yet you allow them to earn the points without getting at least one for yourself won’t help your chances at all.
Then to finish the weekend, the Nailers moved on to face a Toledo team who haven’t lost a game since the Nixon administration at this point. Wheeling managed to hang tough with one of the best teams in the entire league, keeping the game 0-0 through two periods. The Nailers struggled in the second to earn many offensive chances, and didn’t do much better in the third, even after giving up the eventual game-winner to former Nailer Brandon Hawkins. Sometimes your team needs to show a little more urgency, they have to create chances for themselves, and it wasn’t apparent on Sunday.
The Walleye goalie only needed to make 23 saves in the game to earn the shutout in a game the Nailers absolutely needed points in, considering they hadn’t earned any the entire weekend thus far. The failure of the boys on the ice to provide that push makes me feel like the writing is on the wall and they realize they’re just playing the season out at this point.
Wheeling had another game this week, on Wednesday morning against Toledo for their education game, with over 5,000 area schoolchildren in attendance. Trying to listen to the game on the radio or watch it on TV felt like absolute mayhem, with the kids doing everything they could to inject the arena with their chaotic energy and push the Nailers more. Unfortunately, it wasn’t enough as the Nailers managed to give up a goal just 35 seconds into the game, allow three more in their own net throughout the rest of the game, and get held to just one goal on 26 shots in a 4-1 loss.
Wheeling had some energy in the first period and looked like they wanted to bring the game to the Walleye after giving up the early tally, but after the second goal of the period by Toledo, you could see the wind just leave the sails of the Nailers and they were just skating through the game after that. When a team gets discouraged as they appeared to be, it’s hard to come back, and you could just tell it wasn’t in the cards for that game.
As for turning this thing around, I worry that it might be too little, too late at this point (but more on this here in a few). The Nailers now sit nine points back of Ft. Wayne again, just like they were after the Iowa series, but this time the Komets have two games in hand, and Wheeling only has 16 games left to their regular season. At best, they can earn 32 standings points, which would give them 83 points for the year, and Ft. Wayne already has 60 points for this season.
Wheeling would need to hope that Ft. Wayne is held to less than 22 standings points in their remaining schedule, with the Nailers winning out, starting with back to back games against the Komets in Ft. Wayne on Friday followed by a home game at Wesbanco on Saturday. The odds are definitely stacked against them, and I’m trying hard to see a way they can make it happen, but I feel like a playoff run simply isn’t going to manifest itself for this year.
Speaking of one-goal games, Wheeling is now 6-13 in games decided like that this year, including losses in nine straight games decided by a single goal. Why do you think that is and how do they fix it?
To have a third of the games you’ve played this season decided by just one goal tells me that you’re close with these other teams. To have as many of them be losses as the Nailers have had tells me you’re just not close enough with these other teams. Certainly, luck plays a role in it, where a game is close and you have to hope a bounce or two goes your way and it just doesn’t. But sometimes a team just has to want it more and create their own luck, and that’s something I haven’t seen out of the Nailers this season. It doesn’t help that the four players they counted on at the beginning of the season to be leaders on this team as alternate captains are no longer on the roster, as Sean Josling and Josh Maniscalco are currently with the Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins, Adam Smith with his new team over in the Czech Republic, and Cam Hausinger is not around either.
Having guys in the room to hold the rest of the guys responsible in those situations means a lot, and when those guys aren’t here to do that, new guys need to step up to fill those roles. I haven’t seen that yet with this team, and things have gotten progressively sloppier since then. A player doesn’t have to have a letter on his jersey to be a leader in the locker room or on the ice, so one of the guys on the roster needs to step up. Pull the team together, put it on your back if you need to, and be the example you needed when you were younger yourself.
Aside from the leadership issue, the one-goal losses could also be a system issue. Does the current process allow for the urgency needed when you are involved in a close game late? How do you create offense quickly without running the risk of it jumping up and biting you should a mistake happen? I’m not sure if that’s really the issue for this particular team, but it could create problems if you’re set up to be a bit more methodical in creating chances and don’t have the time to set up your offense.
When a team plays with speed like the Nailers like to, that’s not normally how you work, but based on the lack of urgency I’ve seen out of this team at points this year in close games, you have to wonder why there isn’t a stronger push to force the issue, and it’s always a possibility that there needs to be a setup in place from the coaching staff to help force the issue.
The last time the Nailers had back-to-back winning weeks was back when the calendar switched from 2022 to 2023. How important is that and can the Nailers find a way to reverse that trend?
I honestly couldn’t believe this stat until I went back and checked it again. The last time the Nailers had back-to-back winning weeks was the weeks of December 25 to December 31 when they went 2-1, followed by the week of January 1 to January 7 when they were again 2-1. Going over two months without seeing consistent success will absolutely decimate your chances at having a successful season or earning a realistic shot at a playoff spot.
In a 72-game season, which is now almost 80 percent of the way completed, good teams find ways to stack successful weeks together, turning winning weekends into winning months into a strong playoff position. A failure to do that will almost certainly send you home in April, and it appears that’s the direction the Nailers are headed (but more on that shortly).
Of course, as long as you still have games to play, you can always find a way to turn that around. Start stacking wins, beginning this weekend with the home and home with Ft. Wayne. Winning both games in regulation could help you get back into contention, being only five standings points back with that, although the Komets would still have two games in hand.
Without looking too far forward, the Nailers will follow this short series up with three straight down in Norfolk against the Admirals next week, the team they just beat in two out of three games a couple weeks ago. If they can start a winning streak with these two big series and put some pressure on the Komets again, maybe that could be the start of something big for the Nailers.
As the season slowly creeps closer and closer to the end, the Nailers find themselves on the outside looking in for a playoff spot. Is there enough time and games left this season to turn it around enough and earn a berth?
I know I tried really hard in the last question to remain positive on the Nailers for the rest of this year, but boy, it’s difficult to see a way for the Nailers to make it happen, especially with how they’ve been playing recently. Wheeling has only managed to earn nine wins in the calendar year of 2023 (in the span of 27 games), which simply isn’t enough to get the job done.
They would need to go 11-5 the rest of the way to make sure they finish with at least a winning record, but even then, they would only have 73 standings points if they did that. With Ft. Wayne already having 60 standings points, they would need to go 6-12 in their remaining contests for the Nailers to earn the fourth and final playoff spot in the division.
That being said, it’s still mathematically possible, so the Nailers need to play hard and not give up. If it’s going to take wins to at least give them a chance to play further into April, then wins is what they need to earn. There are a lot of variables that can affect things coming down the stretch, such as call-ups, potential injuries, and the play of opponents.
The Komets did have a five-game losing streak prior to last weekend when they won both games they played, but they still have six games left against the teams ahead of them in the standings, as well as three head-to-head with the Nailers, so anything is possible. The only thing Wheeling can do to help themselves keep their chances alive is win games, starting this weekend with their two against Ft. Wayne, so that’s where their focus absolutely has to be.
Country night is this Saturday (March 11) against Ft. Wayne, with a whiskey tasting event, special camo jerseys that will be auctioned off, and a postgame concert by Jonathan Moody. What are your thoughts on the promotion for this game?
Personally, I’m not a big fan of country music. Everyone I know who knows my favorite music to listen to tells me I have a very strange taste, but I personally call it eclectic, just so I don’t sound like a really weird person. As I’m writing this currently, I’m switching between listening to a German electronicore band, a Mongolian rock band, and an Italian rock/pop band. So maybe take my opinions with a grain of salt if you don’t enjoy those types of music.
That being said, I went and looked up Jonathan Moody when I saw that he was the performer after the game, and I must admit, I think he has a really melodic voice. Even though it’s not my cup of tea personally, I do think he has some nice songs, and I wouldn’t object to listening to some more of his music.
For me, the value of the night would be the whiskey tasting. I don’t drink often, but I can definitely appreciate the taste of a nice, smoky whiskey, and I’m intrigued by the idea of having multiple types to taste and see which one I would like the most. Also, after seeing the jerseys being worn that night, I think they’ll look very interesting in use (but I don’t envy DJ or Isaac in trying to read the numbers and nameplates on said jerseys). So hopefully it turns into a very fun event all in all, and I really hope everyone can make it down to the arena to be a part of it.
