The Nailers slid a little heading into the playoffs, losing Friday at Toledo and Saturday against Indy. What happened in these two games?
While it would have been nice to enter the playoffs with a couple wins to have some momentum, thankfully these games were meaningless to Wheeling in the grand scheme of things. Toledo still had something to play for, with the chance to get the top spot in Central Division (which Fort Wayne ended up holding on to), and Indy needed the win to have a chance to make the playoffs, which they managed to do thanks to the loss by Kalamazoo against the Komets on the last day of the season. So, the Nailers finish the season with 98 points, failing to hit triple digits for the second time in team history (the 2003-04 team with 106 points remains the only iteration of the Nailers to do so).
Friday’s game got off to a quick start, with the Walleye managing to score just over a minute into the contest. Wheeling pushed hard to get back into it, and just over seven minutes after that goal, Mike Posma managed to tie things up for the Nailers. Despite both teams continuing to push hard, no more goals came in the period, and the game was tied 1-1 heading into the second.
Only one goal was pocketed in the second period, but it was in the Wheeling net during a Toledo power play to give them an advantage going into the third. Two more scores by the Walleye in a 91 second span practically put the game out of reach at 4-1, but the Nailers didn’t give up, and Brayden Edwards managed to bring it back to 4-2 with just over five minutes left in the game. Wheeling pulled Taylor Gauthier late for the extra skater, and Toledo managed to find the empty net to push the final score to 5-2.
Saturday’s game started much better for the Nailers, as they managed to score their first goal just 14 seconds into the contest thanks to Zach Urdahl, and just eight minutes later, the lead was doubled off the stick of Mike Posma. They couldn’t make it to the intermission that way though, as the Fuel were able to score with just over nine minutes left in the period, and Wheeling held a 2-1 lead after one.
The Nailers continued their push early in the second and it paid off with Brayden Edwards scoring just over two minutes into the middle frame to once again extend Wheeling’s lead to two. However, from there, it became Indy’s game, as they managed to pocket two goals in the back half of the second period to tie the game heading into the third. A roughing penalty called on Posma early in the third period allowed the Fuel to score a power play goal to take their first lead of the game, and unfortunately, they managed to hold on and win 4-3 in the regular season finale for both teams.
The Nailers now begin the playoffs as the top seed in the North Division, taking on Reading to start their path to the Kelly Cup. What does Wheeling need to do in game one on Friday and game two on Saturday to start off on the right foot?
And now, the second season begins. The Nailers will now (hopefully) play their first two rounds exclusively within the North Division, a group of teams they managed to go 32-15-1-2 against this year, but only 13-9-0-2 against the other three teams (Adirondack, Maine, and Reading) that made the postseason out of the division. Thankfully, with entering the playoffs in first place, Wheeling will get to start each series in the divisional rounds at home, where they accumulated a 24-8-4 record this year.
With how many times these teams met during the regular season (which I will get into a bit more in the next question), there is a lot the Nailers can bring into this series with them that they learned. Hopefully they learned a lot from their three-game set just two weeks ago, where Reading managed to take the game on Friday 3-2 before Wheeling won on Saturday 6-2 and on Sunday 2-1 in overtime.
One thing the Nailers might need to take advantage of is their special teams being much better than the Royals overall. Wheeling’s power play finished seventh in the ECHL with a 21.5% success rate, while Reading’s was one of the lowest of all teams that made the playoffs at 16.5%. Only Savannah (16.1%) and Indy (13.9%) had lower success rates with the advantage and made the playoffs.
On the other hand, things went a little bit better for the Royals on the penalty kill than for the Nailers. Both teams managed to give up 39 power play goals against this season, but Reading did it in 256 times shorthanded to Wheeling’s 241, meaning the Royals had an 84.8% kill rate, good for sixth in the league compared to the Nailers sitting in tenth with an 83.8% success rate on the PK. I feel like, if Wheeling is given the chance on the power play and finds a way to have success with it, that will go a long way to hopefully making this a short series.
The Nailers faced Reading 15 times during the regular season this year, going 7-7-1 against them. What can Wheeling learn from these contests and take into this first round matchup?
The great news is, despite finishing with a sub-.500 record (technically) against the Royals this season, every team now has a 0-0 record heading into this. However, looking over what happened this year, it’s interesting that both teams had a losing record against one another on home ice, as the Nailers went 2-4-1 at WesBanco Arena against the Royals while they managed to go 3-4-1 when Wheeling came to town. Looking back at the three times these two teams met in the playoffs, Reading managed to beat the Nailers in 2004, but Wheeling came back and took the series between these two teams played in 2006 and again in 2016. With this year ending in a six, it stands to reason the Nailers should be able to do it again.
It’s rather impressive just how close things were between these two teams considering just how much better Wheeling was during the regular season by pretty much every metric. Better power play, better penalty kill, better goals for per game (3.29 to 2.76), goals against per game (2.43 to 2.85), and yet Reading managed to hang with the Nailers every time they played one another.
While talking about this series, my buddy DJ Abisalih (the voice of the Nailers) pointed out that this series mirrors the series between these two teams’ parent clubs (Pittsburgh versus Philly). And much like that series, it’s going to come down to which team is able to get to their game. Wheeling needs to take advantage of their skill level and just how deep their roster is compared to Reading. If they can win the special teams battle and have the advantage when it comes to depth scoring, I believe they will continue on past the first round.
Looking around the league, are there any other series you are excited to see how they turn out or expect anything out of the ordinary in?
The main series I will be watching aside from ours is on the other side of our bracket, where Maine goes against Adirondack. The Mariners enter the postseason in second place in the North Division, giving them home ice against the Thunder, but there could be questions about whether that’s a good thing for them. Maine posted a home record of 2-2-3 against Adirondack this year (and 5-5-5 overall), while Adirondack’s record for the season against Maine was 10-2-3 (5-0-2 on the road).
The good news for Nailers fans is that no matter which team Wheeling runs into in the next round (once they get past Reading), we have the better record against them, as the Nailers went 3-1-0 against the Thunder this season and 3-1-0-1 against the Mariners. We also managed to not lose a game all season against either of these teams at WesBanco Arena, so with the home ice advantage, that might come into play.
The only other series I care enough about to keep an eye on is between Toledo and Bloomington, with the hopes that the Bison can find a way to knock off the Walleye. Game one between these teams was on Thursday night, where Toledo posted a 4-1 victory to take a 1-0 lead in the best-of-seven series. This is Bloomington’s first appearance in the ECHL playoffs in just their second season in the league, so here’s to hoping for some beginner’s luck and they can knock Toledo out early.
With the Nailers beginning their playoffs at home this season, something they haven’t had the luxury of doing the last couple trips to the postseason, how important is it to pack the arena this weekend?
Listen, I know that, technically, we were supposed to start the postseason last year against Norfolk at home. But, due to scheduling conflicts at their arena, we had to actually play the first two games on the road, giving them that advantage and allowing them to come to Wheeling already up two games to none and winning it in five. Then the year before, we entered the postseason third in the Central Division and opened the playoffs on the road against Indy, beating the Fuel in five games before moving on to face Toledo and losing in the divisional finals in a series sweep.
The Nailers have been an absolutely dominant team at home this season, amassing a record of 24-8-4 on the ice at WesBanco Arena. A lot of the players and coaches have commented that, when that building is full and absolutely rocking, the energy flowing through the place gives them an immeasurable advantage. DJ himself has said he loves it when it gets so loud in that building that he can’t even hear what he’s shouting into his mic. I’m looking forward to getting down there and letting my voice be heard and willing the Nailers to victory this weekend, and I really hope to see all of you at the rink.
